When Nikki Haley suspended her presidential campaign in March, she declined to endorse Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination. Some of her supporters in Pennsylvania appear to have followed suit. Despite not actively campaigning, Haley garnered almost 17% of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary vote, or one in six votes, while Trump received 83%. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state with 19 electoral votes up for grabs in the presidential election. If Haley’s Republican voters refuse to support Trump in November, it could significantly damage his prospects for victory in the state and potentially his reelection bid. Although Haley’s base was never substantial enough to seriously challenge Trump’s path to securing the Republican nomination, her significant vote tally in Pennsylvania, surpassing 156,000, is notable. This number is almost double the 80,500-vote margin by which Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump in Pennsylvania in 2020. Pennsylvania’s 2016 election was even closer, with Trump narrowly defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton by just 44,000 votes. Haley’s support was particularly strong in urban and suburban areas where Trump faced substantial losses in his previous presidential campaigns. She performed well in Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties, which are suburbs of Philadelphia, receiving roughly one out of every four votes in those areas. Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, emphasized the importance of these areas. He stated, “That’s an area that’s highly educated, more moderate in its politics, and crucial for winning Pennsylvania. We saw that in 2020, if you wanted to pick one spot in Pennsylvania that ended Trump’s chance here, it was the Philadelphia suburbs.” Biden’s 2020 victory in Pennsylvania was narrow, with a margin of less than 1.5%, or approximately 80,000 votes. In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the state by fewer than 45,000 votes. According to preliminary state election data, Biden received 929,798 votes, or 93.1% of the Democratic primary vote total. However, Biden also faced challenges. Muslim and Arab-American voters in Pennsylvania launched an “Abandon Biden” campaign to protest the president’s handling of the Gaza crisis. Similar efforts were seen in other battleground states like Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, with Michigan’s primary experiencing the most significant turnout of 13% uncommitted votes. Borick noted that there were over 50,000 write-in votes on Tuesday, with almost all of them anticipated to be write-in “uncommitted” votes as part of the protest. However, official results were not yet available as the votes had to be entered manually. Organizers in Pennsylvania aimed to gather 40,000 write-in “uncommitted” votes. Democrat turnout in the crucial Philadelphia county was also weak. Biden received 131,298 votes there on Tuesday, significantly lower than the 239,492 votes he received in the 2020 primaries. Allegheny county, which is smaller than Philadelphia, had a better turnout, with 144,184 votes cast for Biden on Tuesday. Borick highlighted the historical significance of Philadelphia in driving Democratic victories in Pennsylvania. “Historically Philadelphia has been the electoral engine that drives Democrats to win Pennsylvania,” he said. In 2020, Biden received 81.4% of the vote, or 603,790 votes, in Philadelphia. Biden secured the Democratic nomination, while Trump clinched the Republican nod in early March. Both candidates are expected to face each other in November’s general election without facing any significant opposition in the primary. Biden and Trump have visited Pennsylvania in recent weeks, focusing on the general election rather than Tuesday’s vote. Biden, who was born and spent part of his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania, has been a fixture in the neighboring Delaware’s politics for decades. US Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota managed to secure 7% of the votes against Biden, translating to nearly 70,000 votes as of Wednesday morning. Phillips and Haley qualified for Pennsylvania’s primary ballot before withdrawing from the presidential race. Biden and Trump are on track to secure their parties’ presidential nominations and face each other in the November general election. Phillips has endorsed Biden. Approximately 1 million ballots were counted in both the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries in Pennsylvania, out of the 3.5 million registered Republican voters and 3.9 million registered Democratic voters. Pennsylvania holds closed primary elections, requiring voters to register as either Republicans or Democrats by April 8th to participate in the respective party’s primary.
Haley’s Supporters in Pennsylvania Refuse to Endorse Trump, Harming His Chances in Battleground State
