The assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran has significantly heightened tensions in West Asia, with fears of a regional war looming large. Iran, which has vowed revenge for Haniyeh’s killing, is now at a crossroads — whether to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel or to opt for a Gaza ceasefire as a diplomatic alternative.
Diplomatic manoeuvres amidst regional war concerns: At the recent emergency summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, regional leaders expressed hopes that Iran might lean towards diplomacy rather than military action. Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, alongside other Muslim-majority country representatives, discussed possible steps to prevent further escalation. Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, emphasised that ending the ongoing Israeli aggression in Gaza is the first step towards de-escalation, urging all parties to consider the broader consequences of continued violence.
There is a ceasefire proposal: United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas had reached a crucial stage, with both sides warned against further escalation. France’s President Emmanuel Macron also weighed in, urging Iran to abandon any plans for retaliation against Israel, suggesting that a Gaza ceasefire could serve as a diplomatic win for Tehran. Such a move would allow Iran to project itself as a protector of Palestinian lives while avoiding the potential pitfalls of a direct military confrontation with Israel. On its part, Israel has agreed to join the ceasefire talks with Hamas on August 15. This raises hope that West Asia may finally see easing out of tensions after 10 months of Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. It has also witnessed exchange of fire and casualties along Israel-Lebanon border, with Iran-backed Hezbollah targeting Israel, which responds prompting with greater force each time it faces a missile or rocket attack.
The Hezbollah factor: The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut has further complicated the situation. There are concerns that Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, may act independently to avenge Shukr’s death, potentially dragging Iran into a broader conflict. Israeli officials are reportedly bracing for such an attack, though it remains uncertain how closely coordinated Hezbollah’s actions might be with Tehran.
Iran has its own strategic dilemma: Iran faces a complex strategic decision. On one hand, a retaliatory strike against Israel could satisfy the calls for vengeance from within the country and among its allies. On the other hand, diplomatic pressure, particularly from the United States and its allies, suggests that restraint could yield greater long-term benefits for Iran. Tehran’s leaders are reportedly contemplating a more targeted response, possibly against Mossad or Israeli military assets, rather than a broader assault that could result in mass civilian casualties.
External actors and internal factors: Jordan has made its stance clear, with Safadi warning that Jordan would not tolerate any violation of its airspace by Iranian missiles or drones. Meanwhile, the US and its allies have continued to pressure Iran to refrain from military action, with messages indicating that an attack would be counterproductive. The involvement of international players like France and the UK in de-escalatory efforts further complicates Iran’s decision-making process. Within Iran, the debate over how to respond is influenced by both internal and external pressures. Some factions argue that refraining from a revenge attack could enhance Iran’s prestige and increase Israel’s isolation in the region. However, others point to the failure of the UN Security Council to condemn Haniyeh’s assassination as justification for unilateral military action. Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian has also been under pressure, adding another layer of complexity to Tehran’s potential response. The government’s focus on domestic issues, such as public outcry over recent incidents involving the “morality police,” may also impact its decision-making.
So, what future holds: Diplomacy or retaliation?: As the world waits for Iran’s next move, the possibility of a Gaza ceasefire presents a diplomatic off-ramp that could prevent further escalation in West Asia. However, with Iran’s self-professed honour and deterrence at stake, and with Hezbollah’s potential involvement, the situation remains highly volatile. Whether Tehran will prioritise regional stability over a desire for revenge is a question that remains unanswered, but the international community is watching closely for signs of Iran’s ultimate decision.
