The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a virtual dead heat, according to the latest National Poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The survey, conducted from October 20 to 23, paints a picture of a deeply divided electorate, with both candidates vying for the support of a shrinking pool of undecided voters.
The poll reveals that Harris and Trump are each garnering 48% of the popular vote, a stark contrast to the earlier Times/Siena poll in early October where Harris held a narrow lead. While the overall race remains tight, the contest is intensifying in seven critical battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, with their diverse demographics and shifting political landscapes, are crucial to both candidates’ electoral strategies.
The poll also reveals a significant lead for Harris among voters who have already cast their ballots, with 59% supporting her compared to Trump’s 40%. However, a significant portion of voters, 15%, remain undecided. Notably, Harris currently leads in this undecided group, capturing 42% of their support compared to Trump’s 32%. This suggests that the outcome of the election could hinge on swaying the remaining undecided voters.
Favorability ratings for both candidates have seen a slight increase since the previous poll. Harris is viewed favorably by 48% of voters, up from 46%, while Trump’s favorability has also risen from 47% to 48%. In terms of gender, Harris leads Trump among women (54% to 42%), while Trump commands a lead among men (55% to 41%).
The poll also sheds light on the broader political landscape, indicating a divided electorate regarding congressional races. 48% of voters express intentions to support Republican candidates, while 48% lean towards Democrats. This suggests a highly polarized political landscape, with voters aligning strongly with their respective parties.
The poll highlights the key issues driving voter sentiment, with immigration emerging as a top concern for 15% of voters, an increase from 12% in previous polls. Trump has capitalized on this issue, promising to execute “the largest deportation in American history” and positioning himself as the more trustworthy candidate on immigration issues, leading Harris by 11 points on this issue.
Economic concerns are also at the forefront of voters’ minds. While 28% of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction, Harris has managed to narrow the gap with Trump on economic management. Last month, Trump held a 13-point advantage, but that lead has shrunk to 6 points.
Harris also maintains a substantial lead of 16 points on the issue of abortion access, a crucial element of her campaign strategy. This issue remains a key driver of voter turnout, particularly among women and younger voters.
The poll, conducted through telephone interviews in both English and Spanish, surveyed 2,516 voters nationwide. The margin of sampling error is approximately ±2.2 percentage points, ensuring that the results are reflective of the broader voting population.
With Election Day rapidly approaching, both candidates will likely ramp up their campaign efforts to sway undecided voters in this highly competitive race. The battleground states will be the focus of intense campaigning, with both candidates vying for every vote. The outcome of the election will depend on how effectively each candidate can mobilize their base and persuade undecided voters.