In a surprising twist ahead of the upcoming election, a new poll has Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa by three points. This finding, revealed by the final Des Moines Register-sponsored poll of Iowa conducted just three days before Election Day, marks a significant shift from September, when Trump held a four-point lead over Harris.
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. between October 28th and 31st, has experts scratching their heads. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” stated pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., in an interview with the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
However, while Harris’ lead falls within the 3.4% margin of error, it appears to be an outlier. Another poll released by Emerson College on the same day showed Trump with a 10-point lead, and he continues to maintain a decent advantage in other polls.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, highly regarded for its accuracy in gauging sentiment within Iowa, has a strong track record. Its final results have mirrored the state’s actual outcomes in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In 2016, the poll predicted a seven-point lead for Trump over Hillary Clinton, which ultimately came to fruition. Similarly, in 2020, the poll accurately forecasted a seven-point lead for Trump over President Biden.
Iowa, though not considered a swing state, holds strategic importance due to its proximity to swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The state’s political landscape often serves as an indicator of national trends.
This recent poll suggests a possible shift in the race, particularly among women, as Harris has actively campaigned on issues related to abortion access.
The remaining 9% of those surveyed indicated they would vote for another candidate, were undecided, or planned to abstain from voting. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the race as an independent candidate and endorsed Trump, secured 3% of the vote in the poll.
With the election just days away, this unexpected poll outcome has sparked intense debate. While experts remain cautious, it underscores the potential for surprises as the race enters its final stretch. The outcome in Iowa, along with the results in other key states, will ultimately determine the direction of the nation.
