A new nationwide poll, conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA, shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a potential 2024 presidential matchup. The poll, released on Tuesday, found that Harris leads Trump by a margin of 47% to 43%. This slight lead persists even when considering only likely voters, with Harris garnering 49% support compared to Trump’s 45%.
The poll sheds light on the demographic dynamics at play. Harris holds a commanding lead among Black voters, garnering the support of three-quarters of this group. She also enjoys strong support among Hispanic voters (over 50%) and white, college-educated voters (57%). However, Trump maintains his dominance among white voters without a college degree, receiving 59% of their support.
One of the most notable findings is the widening gender gap. Harris secured the support of 53% of female voters compared to 41% for Trump. Conversely, Trump received 47% of the male vote compared to 45% for Harris. This indicates that Harris has effectively appealed to female voters, a key demographic in presidential elections.
The poll also suggests that Harris has made significant gains among independent voters. While a July poll showed a close race between Harris and Trump among independent voters, the latest poll reveals a significant shift. Forty-eight percent of independents now support Harris, compared to just 35% who support Trump. This trend could prove significant as independents represent a crucial segment of the electorate.
While Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, are generally perceived as left-leaning, Trump and his potential running mate, Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), are seen as right-leaning. The poll indicates that Harris is viewed as more strongly on the far left than Walz, while Trump is perceived as further to the right than Vance. This suggests that the Democrats could potentially leverage Walz’s more moderate image to appeal to centrist voters.
The results of this poll provide valuable insights into the potential 2024 presidential race. While Harris currently holds a slight lead, the race remains tight and subject to change. The gender gap, the shift in independent voter sentiment, and the demographic dynamics identified by the poll will likely be key factors to watch as the campaign unfolds.
