With just hours remaining until Election Day, a new poll reveals a tight race for the presidency, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow national lead over former President Donald Trump. The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, conducted from October 31 to November 2, shows Harris capturing 51% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47%. However, the gender gap between the two candidates is shrinking, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment as the election nears.
The poll, which surveyed 1,297 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, indicates a significant narrowing of the gender gap. In a similar poll conducted in late September, Trump held a lead among men with 57% support, while Harris garnered 41%. Now, that lead has shrunk to 51% for Trump and 47% for Harris. Conversely, Harris’s lead among women has also narrowed. In the September poll, she led Trump by 58% to 40%, but that gap has now shrunk to 55% for Harris and 44% for Trump.
The poll also found that Trump holds a lead among independent voters, with 51% support compared to Harris’s 46%. Additionally, among those who have already voted, Harris leads with 56% support, while Trump has captured 53% support among those who haven’t yet cast their ballot.
When asked about the most important issue for voters this November, 31% listed preserving democracy, followed by inflation (25%), immigration (19%), abortion (10%), and healthcare (7%).
The poll delves into the perceived intentions of the candidates regarding their campaign promises. When asked if Harris is mainly making proposals she intends to carry out or just to secure votes, voters were divided at 49% for each option. However, when asked the same question about Trump, 55% believed he intended to follow through on his proposals, while 44% believed he was merely seeking votes.
Despite Harris holding a national lead in the poll, voters remain divided when asked who they think will actually win the election. Forty-nine percent believe Trump will win, while 46% believe Harris will emerge victorious.
This poll highlights the fluidity of the presidential race and suggests a close contest between Harris and Trump, with potential shifts in voter sentiment impacting the final outcome.
