The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heating up, with just one month left until Election Day. Recent polling data suggests that Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump, but the race remains incredibly close.
Several polls conducted in recent weeks show Harris with an edge, ranging from two to five points. The Emerson poll reveals Harris leading with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%. The Morning Consult’s weekly poll also shows Harris ahead by five points, with 51% to 46%. Similar results were seen in a Susquehanna poll and an Economist/YouGov poll, with Harris leading by five and three points respectively.
However, it’s important to note that Harris’s lead has slightly shrunk over the past two months. Her peak advantage of 3.7 points in late August has diminished, highlighting the tight nature of the race. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Harris leading Trump by 2.2 points.
While Harris maintains a national lead, the Cook Political Report survey reveals that her lead over Trump is only one point overall in the seven battleground states that will likely determine the election outcome. This underscores the importance of these states, where the race is currently too close to call.
One area of concern for the Harris campaign is her shrinking lead among Latino voters. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll indicates that Harris’s support among this demographic is dwindling.
The debates have also played a role in shaping public opinion. While most post-debate surveys indicate that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debates, it was not enough to significantly impact the race between the two candidates.
A poll conducted by American University and the Benenson Strategy Group revealed that 51% of women trust Harris to address inflation and the high cost of gas and groceries, compared to only 37% who trust Trump on these issues. The survey also showed that Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are trusted more on immigration, another crucial issue heading into the election.
Harris’s favorability among independent women has seen a significant increase since last year, with 51% now finding her favorable. The poll also emphasized that the economy and inflation are the most important issues for women in the 2024 presidential race, with 64% of respondents indicating this.
With Harris currently holding a 3.7-point lead over Trump nationally, the race remains incredibly close. The outcome could depend on voter turnout, the effectiveness of campaigns in key battleground states, and how effectively both candidates address the concerns of voters on issues like inflation and the economy. This highly contested election will likely keep the nation on edge until the very end.
