A new poll conducted by the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion offers insights into the potential voting patterns of Black voters in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The poll, conducted between September 4th and 11th, surveyed 1,000 Black voters aged 18 and older who are registered to vote in seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The results paint a clear picture of strong support for Vice President Kamala Harris among this demographic.
The poll found that a staggering 82% of Black voters in these states indicated support for Harris, while only 12% favored former President Donald Trump. A small percentage (5%) of respondents remained undecided, while the remaining 1% expressed their intention to vote for a candidate other than Harris or Trump.
The poll also revealed a notable difference in support levels between younger and older Black voters. While a vast majority (89%) of Black voters over 50 years old backed Harris, only 8% supported Trump, and 4% favored an alternative candidate. However, among younger Black voters, support for Trump doubled to 16%, with 9% expressing support for alternative candidates. This age difference was particularly pronounced among men. Men under fifty years old favored Harris by a margin of 72% to 21%, while men over fifty favored her by a more significant margin of 88% to 10%.
These findings suggest that while Harris currently enjoys strong support among Black voters in swing states, the Trump campaign may have an opportunity to gain ground by focusing their efforts on younger Black voters. The poll, conducted via landline, cellphone, and text-to-web, carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
