As the Haryana Assembly elections approach on October 5th, a look back at recent electoral contests reveals a potential shift in the state’s political landscape. Since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has held the reins of power in Haryana. However, recent election trends suggest a possible change in favor of the Indian National Congress (INC).
Analyzing past Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, a clear pattern emerges in Haryana. In the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the contests primarily revolved around two major parties – the BJP and the Congress. However, the 2019 Assembly elections saw a different dynamic emerge, with regional parties like the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) gaining significant traction.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP garnering a substantial 58.2% of the popular vote, mirroring their strong performance across the Hindi heartland. In fact, the BJP led in 88% of the Assembly segments in Haryana. However, in the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP’s vote share dramatically plummeted to 36.5%. This decline benefited regional parties, who captured a substantial portion of the remaining votes, enabling them to win 35.4% of the overall vote share. This resulted in a significant reduction in BJP’s seat share, forcing them to rely on an alliance with the JJP to form the government.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a return to a more traditional bipolar contest, with the BJP and Congress dominating the scene. While regional parties did manage to secure a small share of the votes, it was significantly lower compared to the 2019 Assembly elections. Notably, the Congress, under Bhupender Hooda’s leadership, experienced a significant resurgence, increasing their vote share by a substantial 15.6 points compared to the 2019 Assembly elections. This increase was particularly evident in seats reserved for Dalits, where the Congress secured a whopping 51.7% of the vote share. This marked a significant shift as the Congress led the BJP in these seats for the first time since 2014.
The Congress’s strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, especially among Dalits, has instilled hope for a strong showing in the upcoming Assembly elections. The party’s lead in 27% of the Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections, where they won by a margin of over 25% votes, is a significant indicator. In contrast, the BJP’s corresponding figure stands at a mere 9.1%, a considerable drop from their 2019 performance.
The upcoming Haryana Assembly elections are likely to be a tightly contested battle. The BJP, under the leadership of Manohar Lal Khattar and Nayab Singh Saini, has focused on consolidating support among non-Jat Other Backward Classes. Meanwhile, the Congress hopes to make inroads into the Jat vote bank. Given the Congress’s recent gains among Dalit voters, the upcoming election could be a defining moment for both parties. The next few weeks will be crucial in understanding the political landscape in Haryana and predicting the outcome of this critical election.
