In a shocking turn of events, Syrian rebel forces spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have launched a large-scale offensive, seizing control of Aleppo—Syria’s second-largest city—and its airport by November 30th. This dramatic escalation of the ongoing Syrian conflict has sent shockwaves across the globe, highlighting the enduring instability and complex dynamics of the region.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports a devastating toll of 412 lives lost in recent fighting, including 61 civilians. The swift advance of HTS fighters into Aleppo and surrounding areas, including villages and towns in Hama province, represents a significant setback for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Assad himself vowed to continue defending Syria’s stability and territorial integrity against what he terms “terrorists and their supporters,” asserting his government’s capacity to overcome the intensified attacks. However, understanding the identity and objectives of these “terrorists,” specifically HTS, is crucial to comprehending the situation’s complexities.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, often abbreviated as HTS, translates roughly to “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.” This Islamist political and militant group, primarily active in Syria’s Greater Idlib area (encompassing parts of Aleppo’s western countryside, the Lattakia mountains, and al-Ghab Plain in northwestern Hama), has a deeply intertwined history with Al-Qaeda. Emerging from the ashes of Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate formed in 2011, HTS’s origins are intricately linked to the early stages of the Syrian civil war. Reports even suggest involvement of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former leader of the Islamic State group, in HTS’s formation. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, a former Al-Qaeda operative with a $10 million US bounty on his head, HTS evolved into a formidable fighting force, effectively combating Assad’s regime and amassing considerable resources from controlled territories.
In 2016, under al-Jawlani’s leadership, a significant shift occurred. HTS formally severed ties with Al-Qaeda, dissolving Jabhat al-Nusra. Subsequently, in 2017, al-Jawlani merged HTS with several like-minded groups—including Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din—consolidating power and influence. The US State Department formally designated HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2018.
While groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State aim for a global Islamic Caliphate, HTS’s objectives are more regionally focused. Their primary goal, as evidenced by various reports and statements, is to establish Islamic rule within Syria, toppling Assad’s regime and expelling Iranian-backed militias. Al-Jawlani’s past pronouncements, including aspirations to reach Damascus and Jerusalem, further reveal HTS’s animosity toward Israel.
The HTS commands a substantial fighting force, estimated between 12,000 and 15,000 troops, according to a 2018 report by the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. Their stronghold in Idlib province is governed through the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which surprisingly, also provides essential services like welfare programs and food aid, cultivating popular support in the region. This duality—of violence and governance—is a defining characteristic of HTS. However, reports of civilian deaths at the hands of HTS between 2020 and 2022, totaling at least 54, underscore the group’s continued violence against non-combatants. Control over the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey and key economic sectors via the al-Sham Bank and Watad Company (oil sector) illustrates HTS’s significant economic influence in the region.
The timing of HTS’s recent offensive is noteworthy. Its commencement coincided with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, raising concerns about broader regional implications. The offensive is framed by HTS as a response to increased attacks from government forces and pro-Iranian militias. International alarm has been expressed by the US, France, Germany, and Britain, with calls for de-escalation and civilian protection. UN envoy Geir Pedersen aptly summarized the situation, emphasizing the severe risks posed to civilians and the dire implications for regional and international peace and security. The fall of Aleppo marks a potentially pivotal moment in the long and bloody Syrian civil war, underscoring the continuing need for a comprehensive and lasting resolution.
