Get ready for a drenching! India is expecting heavy rainfall across the country from Sunday to Thursday, a result of a brewing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The monsoon, which usually starts retreating from northwest India around September 17th, is slated to begin its withdrawal from west Rajasthan and Kachchh on Monday. This delayed departure, especially with active rainy spells persisting, could spell trouble for crops as they mature for harvesting in October and potentially disrupt the sowing of rabi crops.
Despite a dry start, India has experienced a bountiful monsoon this year, with rainfall exceeding normal levels. This surge in rainfall was a welcome relief after last year’s low agricultural output and helped boost the sowing of kharif crops in August. However, the abundant rainfall in September could pose a threat to the upcoming harvest, potentially leading to crop damage and affecting inflation.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the formation of a low-pressure area over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday, coupled with favorable conditions for the monsoon’s withdrawal, will bring heavy showers to parts of south peninsular India from Sunday to Tuesday. The central, east, and northeast regions of India can expect heavy rains from Monday to Thursday.
The IMD also noted that La Niña, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures, is expected to emerge later this month and continue until the end of 2024. La Niña, which occurs every 3-5 years, often leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, could contribute to the heavy rainfall. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another influential factor for the monsoon, is expected to remain neutral throughout the 2024 monsoon season.
While the rainfall is a welcome relief for some regions, the delayed withdrawal and potential for excess rain present challenges for the agricultural sector. Farmers are bracing for potential crop damage and a possible impact on inflation as the harvest season approaches.
