Heavy Rainfall Forecast for Central and Northwest India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted heavy rainfall across central and northwest India for the next five days. Central India, including Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, along with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in northwest India, are expected to receive significant rainfall. Meanwhile, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and coastal Karnataka are anticipated to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall during the same period. This forecast is attributed to the active monsoon trough, which is positioned south of its normal location in the lower tropospheric levels, according to the weather bureau.

Mumbai has already experienced heavy rainfall, with Colaba and Santacruz recording 16 cm and 15 cm of rain, respectively, in the last 24 hours. The city received a staggering 30 cm of rain in just six hours from 1 am on Monday, causing widespread flooding and disruption to transportation services and schools. This rainfall was the second highest recorded in the city after 26 July 2005, when it received 94.4 cm of rain, and the highest single-day rainfall for July since 2019 when Mumbai experienced 37.5 cm of rain.

Central Maharashtra has received 55% excess rain, while the entire state recorded 86% more precipitation on 9 July. Despite this, the national rainfall has been only 1% above normal since the beginning of the four-month (June-September) monsoon season.

The IMD has issued a detailed forecast for various regions:

*

Heavy to very heavy rainfall

is expected over Konkan, Goa, Madhya (central) Maharashtra, and Coastal Karnataka until Saturday.
*

Isolated heavy rainfall

is predicted over Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam today.
*

Heavy rainfall

is also forecast for Gujarat and North Interior Karnataka until Saturday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is expected for Saurashtra & Kutch, Telangana today and on Wednesday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is anticipated for Kerala & Mahe and South Interior Karnataka today, on Friday, and Saturday.
*

Very heavy rainfall

is very likely over Gujarat and Coastal Karnataka, while

extremely heavy rainfall

is expected in Goa.
*

Heavy rainfall

is likely over Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh until Saturday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is anticipated for Uttarakhand between Wednesday and Friday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is expected for Himachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is forecast for Jammu, Haryana, and Punjab on Friday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is anticipated for Rajasthan until Thursday.
*

Heavy rainfall

is expected for Vidarbha today and on Wednesday and Chhattisgarh during Thursday-Saturday.
*

Very heavy rainfall

is also likely over East Uttar Pradesh between Wednesday and Friday.

Light to moderate rainfall

accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning may occur over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar, and Northeast India.

Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall

is expected over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha during the next five days.

The South-West monsoon arrived in Kerala two days earlier than usual on 30 May and covered the entire country six days ahead of the normal date of 8 July. While the monsoon progressed normally up to Maharashtra, it lost momentum, leading to delayed rainfall in West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, which had been experiencing a heatwave.

On 1 July, the IMD predicted above-normal rainfall for July, warning that heavy rains could potentially lead to floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in the central parts of the country.