The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast of heavy to very heavy rainfall in northwest, east, and northeast India over the next four days. This weather pattern is attributed to cyclonic circulations over southeast Pakistan near Kutch in the lower troposphere and another over north Gujarat and nearby areas in the middle troposphere. As a result, widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, and Gujarat.
Scattered to fairly widespread light rainfall is expected over Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and scattered light to moderate rainfall over Marathwada, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema, Telangana, North and South Interior Karnataka for the next four days.
The IMD also stated that cyclonic circulations over east Jharkhand and northeast Assam in the lower troposphere are anticipated to bring widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning across northwest, central, eastern, and northeast India for the next five days.
The southwest monsoon, which typically sets in over Kerala around 1 June and covers the entire country by around 15 July, arrived a day earlier than usual on 31 May. However, it stalled over the eastern region for about three weeks after reaching Mumbai on 9 June. This delay has led to a rainfall deficiency across the country, which has reduced to 11%.
The monsoon’s arrival in the Delhi-National Capital Region on Friday has provided some relief, and conditions are favorable for further advance into some more parts of West Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Punjab during the next two days.
The southwest monsoon is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, coal-based power plants, and steelmakers, as it delivers nearly 70% of the rainwater India needs for its farms and to refill reservoirs and aquifers. The stalled monsoon has raised concerns for these sectors, particularly fertilizer companies, as the prolonged dry spell has impacted crop yields and fertilizer demand.
