The political landscape is shifting as the 2024 presidential election draws closer. While Democrats are making gains in some key House races, the possibility of a Trump victory could completely change the dynamics of the House. Recent analysis from the Cook Political Report reveals a tightening race, with six districts leaning towards Democrats and only two showing favor for Republicans.
Two notable races that have shifted towards Democrats are those held by Representatives Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Michelle Steele (R-Calif.). Both districts, which President Biden won in 2020, have gone from being considered “lean Republican” to “toss up.”
Meanwhile, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who flipped her seat from red to blue in 2020, has seen her race move from a “likely” victory for Republicans to only “leaning” in their favor.
On the other hand, Democrats are strengthening their hold on three seats, those held by Representatives Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas). Moskowitz’s race is now considered “solidly blue,” Cuellar’s is “likely blue,” and Kaptur’s, previously a “toss-up,” is now “leaning Democratic.”
However, Democrats could face a loss in Alaska, with the race for Representative Mary Peltola’s seat now a “toss-up” in a state won by Trump in 2020.
Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Representative Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), is now “likely” to be held by Republicans following her decision to vacate the seat to run in the nearby 4th Congressional District.
Despite the Democrats’ recent gains, Republicans are confident in their ability to win both the White House and Congress if Trump is elected. One GOP lawmaker stated, “If these predictive sites are to be believed, maybe Donald Trump’s got a 42% chance to be president. We’ve got a, you know, 60-some percent chance to take the Senate and a 55% chance to keep the House.”
This confidence stems from the belief that a Trump presidency would likely result in a Republican majority in both the House and Senate. This sentiment is further supported by the fact that House Republicans have been out-raising their Democratic counterparts.
The race for the House is undoubtedly tightening, and the outcome hinges on various factors, including voter turnout, campaign spending, and, most importantly, the outcome of the presidential election. The next two months will be crucial in determining the final balance of power in the House of Representatives.
