Hurricane Beryl, the first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, made history over the weekend by achieving Category 4 strength. This milestone marked Beryl as the first Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic for June and the sole storm to rapidly intensify before September 1st. This event serves as a stark reminder of the warnings issued by the ABC13 Weather Team regarding the potential for an active hurricane season fueled by unusually warm tropical waters. These warm waters act as a catalyst for rapid intensification, making any tropical system susceptible to swift development into a hurricane, potentially leading to more hurricanes, including major hurricanes, throughout the season. This season was also predicted to be above average in terms of named storms, and so far, the forecast has held true with the formation of Alberto, Beryl, and Chris.
As Beryl traverses the Caribbean this week, concerns are growing about potential implications for the Texas coast. The uncertainty surrounding its path stems from several key factors that could influence its intensity and trajectory. First, Beryl’s interaction with Jamaica stands as a significant variable. The hurricane is projected to pass near the island midweek. The proximity of the storm’s center to land could have a substantial impact on its intensity following the encounter. Additionally, Beryl may encounter wind shear near the island, potentially weakening the storm. Currently, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica, with the island potentially experiencing Category 2 storm conditions on Wednesday.
Upon reaching the western edge of the Caribbean Sea by Friday, Beryl encounters another wildcard. A more westerly track over Belize and Central America would expose the system to terrain, likely weakening the storm before it enters the Bay of Campeche next weekend. However, if Beryl made landfall further north along the Yucatan Peninsula, near Cozumel or Cancun, the flatter terrain might not significantly disrupt the storm.
Finally, there’s a possibility that Beryl could bypass both the Yucatan and Cuba, moving over water into the Gulf of Mexico. Although this scenario is not expected at this time, it would likely result in the hurricane maintaining its strength or even intensifying. The final wildcard lies in Beryl’s behavior once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, an event likely to occur on Saturday. A weaker storm, perhaps a tropical storm, located further south in the Bay of Campeche, would be guided by steering currents southwards, likely tracking towards Mexico, similar to the paths taken by Tropical Storm Chris and Alberto earlier this season. However, if Beryl maintains its strength upon entering the Gulf, there’s a chance it could take a northerly turn, potentially posing a threat to the Gulf Coast, including southeast Texas. As of Monday, July 1st, it remains too early to make definitive predictions, but the ABC13 Weather Team is not ruling out the possibility of a Texas coast landfall next week.
