Hurricane Ernesto, having pummeled Puerto Rico with heavy rains, is now on a trajectory toward Bermuda, marking the island’s closest encounter with a hurricane in almost four years. Following its path of destruction through Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles, the storm could also brush parts of Atlantic Canada early next week.
Currently, Ernesto is positioned over 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and is moving northward. Despite battling dry air since its initial formation as a hurricane early Wednesday, Ernesto has maintained its Category 1 wind intensity. Hurricane-force winds have been gradually expanding and now extend up to 60 miles from the storm’s center. Overnight, Ernesto intensified, with winds now reaching 85 mph.
Experts predict a rapid strengthening of Ernesto over open waters, potentially reaching near-major hurricane status by Friday. The storm’s center is anticipated to pass close to or directly over Bermuda on Saturday. A hurricane warning was issued for Bermuda early Thursday morning, signaling the impending arrival of hurricane-force winds within 36 hours of tropical storm-force winds. Locally heavy rainfall is expected in Bermuda through Friday, with tropical storm-force winds anticipated to arrive Friday afternoon. All preparations should be completed before these deteriorating conditions arrive.
Ernesto’s center is projected to pass close enough to Bermuda on Saturday to bring hurricane conditions. The storm will also temporarily slow down as it approaches, meaning its impacts are likely to linger through Saturday night and possibly into Sunday morning. Bermuda can expect high winds, flooding rain, storm surge, and battering waves, with up to 12 inches of rain possible through early Sunday.
Following its departure from Bermuda, Ernesto will curve northeast and accelerate. While the storm’s exact track remains uncertain, it could come close enough to far eastern Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland by Monday to bring winds, rain, and waves along the coast as it transitions from a hurricane to a post-tropical cyclone.
Despite staying well off the US East Coast, Ernesto’s swells are forecast to generate dangerous rip currents from Florida to the Northeast through this weekend. Beachgoers along the US East Coast should exercise caution and remain aware of this threat.
This latest storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season formed just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend on Monday, August 5. On Thursday, August 14, the National Hurricane Center unveiled its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto.
The updated cone includes wind warnings for inland counties, not just coastal ones. Both cones are accessible on the Hurricane Center’s website. To view the new cone, visit the graphics page for Hurricane Ernesto and click on the New Experimental Cone highlighted in red.
“The most significant change to the cone is the inclusion of inland wind warnings, which the National Weather Service has issued for years,” explained National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. “We’re integrating that information into the NHC cone for a more comprehensive view of the threat so people don’t have to check two different websites. All the information is now seamlessly combined.”
