Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2023 season, has already made landfall in the Caribbean, bringing with it life-threatening winds and storm surge. The US National Hurricane Centre in Miami described the situation as “very dangerous.” Beryl rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, a feat only achieved six times before in Atlantic hurricane history. Its formation so far southeast is also unusual.
Beryl’s strength, becoming the earliest category 4 Atlantic hurricane on record, is fuelled by record-high ocean temperatures for this time of year. The warm waters, hotter than usual even for the peak of hurricane season in September, provide the fuel for these storms.
Experts have warned that this year’s hurricane season could be an “extraordinary” one, with a potential for a record-breaking number of storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-average hurricane season from June to November, with a 85% chance of this occurring. They forecast 17 to 25 named storms, the highest number ever projected in their seasonal forecast, compared to the average of 14 storms. Between 8 and 13 of these could become hurricanes, with wind speeds of 119 kilometers per hour or higher. Notably, up to seven could reach category three or above, significantly exceeding the average of around three such storms per season.
The NOAA attributes their prediction of an above-average hurricane season to a confluence of factors. These include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. All these factors contribute to favorable conditions for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic.
The agency also highlights the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce waves that seed some of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes.
Furthermore, human-caused climate change is exacerbating the risk of storm surges. The NOAA emphasizes that sea level rise is a clear human influence on the damage potential from hurricanes.
Earlier this year, some scientists argued for a revision of the traditional five-category Saffir-Simpson scale, developed over 50 years ago, to better reflect the strength of climate-change induced hurricanes. Studies show that tropical storms are becoming more intense, and the existing scale might not accurately capture the power of the most powerful storms. Five monster storms in the Pacific since 2013 have recorded wind speeds of 308 kilometers per hour or higher, exceeding the current scale. While no Atlantic hurricane has reached this threshold yet, experts warn that as the world warms, the conditions for such storms are becoming more conducive.
