The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported that its forecasts for a significant increase in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) production by 2024 are on target. Production is expected to rise to 1.9 billion liters (1.5 million tonnes), which will fulfill about 0.53% of the total aviation fuel requirements for that year.
IATA also suggests various government policies that could further boost the uptake of SAF. Willie Walsh, the Director General of IATA, expressed optimism about the progress, noting, “With SAF poised to contribute around 65% of the carbon reduction necessary for airlines to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the anticipated growth in SAF production next year is a positive sign. Although much progress is needed, we are beginning to see the scale of increase needed to meet these goals.”
Regarding renewable fuel production, of which SAF is a component, there are approximately 140 renewable fuel projects slated to potentially contribute to SAF production by 2030. If these projects materialize, they could collectively produce up to 51 million tonnes of renewable fuels, distributed globally.
Investor interest in SAF is climbing, indicating that production could even surpass current projections, despite the typical three-to-five-year development period from planning to operational status. However, it’s noted that not every project announced may reach the final investment decision stage.
Governments, through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), aim to cut CO2 emissions from international aviation by 5% via SAF by 2030. To meet this goal, 27% of all renewable fuel capacities projected for 2030 would need to be dedicated to SAF production, although currently, SAF only makes up 3% of total renewable fuel output.
“The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient. Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050. They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities,” said Willie Walsh.
To enhance SAF production, several strategies could be adopted: Walsh emphasized, “A range of policy interventions could significantly boost SAF production, making it a viable solution for aviation decarbonization. This would include building more renewable energy facilities, enhancing feedstock supplies, and prioritizing aviation in renewable output distribution.”
Additionally, a recent IATA survey showed that 86% of passengers believe governments should incentivize airlines to adopt SAF, and a similar percentage supports prioritizing SAF production by major oil companies.
