Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has made sweeping promises about mass deportations if elected, often framing it as a solution to immigrants taking what he calls “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” However, government data paints a different picture, revealing that immigrant labor actually contributes to economic growth and creates opportunities for native-born workers. This article delves into the impact of immigration on the U.S. labor market and examines the potential economic consequences of Trump’s proposed policy.
Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric has frequently targeted immigrants, claiming they are stealing jobs from American citizens. During a rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, he stated, “You have an invasion of people into our country. They’re going to be attacking — and they already are — Black population jobs, the Hispanic population jobs, and they’re attacking union jobs too. So when you see the border, it’s not just the crime. Your jobs are being taken away too.” This rhetoric has been met with widespread condemnation from Democrats and Black leaders who view it as a racist and insulting way of implying that Black and Hispanic Americans are stuck in menial jobs.
However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey data for 2023 reveals a different story. Native-born Black workers are predominantly employed in management and financial operations, sales, and office support roles. Native-born Latino workers are most often employed in management, office support, sales, and service occupations. Conversely, foreign-born, noncitizen Black workers are more heavily represented in transportation and healthcare support roles, while foreign-born, noncitizen Hispanic workers are most often in construction, building, and grounds cleaning.
Immigration has been a significant driver of U.S. population growth in recent years, with international migrants, primarily from Latin America, accounting for more than two-thirds of the population growth in 2023. This decade, they have made up almost three-quarters of U.S. growth. While the number of migrants crossing the border has significantly decreased since hitting a record high in December 2023, the claim that immigrants are taking jobs from native-born Americans persists. Trump’s advisors often cite a report by Steven Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, a right-leaning think tank that advocates for reduced immigration. This report combines job numbers for immigrants in the U.S., both legal and illegal, to argue that foreigners are disproportionately driving U.S. labor growth and reaping most of the benefits. The report claims that 971,000 more U.S.-born Americans were employed in May 2024 compared to May 2019, before the pandemic, while the number of employed immigrants has increased by 3.2 million.
While it is true that international migrants have become a primary driver of population growth this decade, increasing their share of the overall population, it’s important to understand the context. This is largely due to a decline in births in the U.S. compared to previous years.
However, economists specializing in the impact of immigrant labor on the economy argue that people in the U.S. illegally are not taking jobs from native citizens. Instead, they often fill roles that native workers are unwilling to take, such as positions in agriculture and food processing.
Giovanni Peri, a labor economist at the University of California, Davis, conducted research examining the impact of the 1980 influx of Cuban immigrants in Miami (the Mariel Boatlift) on Black workers’ employment. The study found that the wages of Miami’s Black and Hispanic workers rose above those in other cities without a significant influx of immigrant workers. Peri emphasizes that the presence of new immigrant labor often improves employment outcomes for native-born workers, who often possess different language and skill sets compared to new immigrants.
Importantly, the U.S. job market isn’t a fixed entity with a limited number of jobs. Immigrants contribute to the survival and growth of existing firms, creating new opportunities for native workers. Currently, there are more jobs available than there are workers to fill them. U.S. natives show low interest in labor-intensive agriculture and food production roles. As Peri states, “We have many more vacancies than workers in this type of manual labor, in fact, we need many more of them to fill these roles.”
Stan Marek, owner of Marek Brothers Holdings LLC, a Houston construction firm employing around 1,000 workers, echoes this sentiment. He states, “Absolutely not, unequivocally,” when asked if immigrants in the U.S. illegally are taking jobs from native-born workers. He points out that many of his workers are retiring, and their children are not entering construction or trades. Marek argues that the U.S. needs an identification system that addresses national security concerns while allowing those in the country illegally to work legally. “There’s not enough blue-collar labor here,” he says.
Data shows that when there aren’t enough workers to fill certain roles, firms automate jobs with machines and technology investments rather than relying on native workers. Dartmouth College economist Ethan Lewis notes, “There is a vast amount of research on the labor market impact of immigration in the U.S., most of which concludes the impact on less-skilled workers is fairly small and, if anything, jobs for U.S.-born workers might by created rather than ‘taken’ by immigrants.”
Trump’s proposed mass deportation program would have devastating consequences for the U.S. economy. Peri estimates that it would cost the U.S. up to a trillion dollars and result in massive economic losses. The cost of food and other basic items would skyrocket. “They are massive contributors to our economy and we wouldn’t have fruits and vegetables, we wouldn’t have our gardens,” he says, referring to the potential impact of deportations on agriculture.
Since the labor force comprised of people in the U.S. illegally makes up approximately 4% of U.S. GDP annually, Peri estimates that mass deportation would result in a roughly $1 trillion loss. “It’s a cost that is mind-boggling in terms of income loss, production loss and there will be a logistical cost to organize this,” he says.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in a podcast interview with David Axelrod, echoed this sentiment, stating that immigrant labor “is an important source of labor force growth.” “On balance, it helps the economy grow without actually depriving other people of jobs,” she said. “It’s not in any way a zero-sum game.”
