In response to the growing frequency of extreme weather events impacting India, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has announced a national mission aimed at improving weather prediction and even developing the ability to influence weather patterns. The initiative, outlined by the ministry’s Secretary, M. Ravichandran, will involve a multi-pronged approach to bolstering India’s meteorological capabilities.
The plan calls for launching at least one satellite per state in collaboration with ISRO, dedicated to weather profiling. The number of observation stations, rain gauges, radiosondes (devices that measure atmospheric parameters), and wind profilers will be significantly increased – a tenfold expansion from the current infrastructure. Additionally, the ministry intends to develop expertise in deploying aircraft for cloud intervention and observation, allowing for potential manipulation of weather systems.
Recognizing the increasing severity and unpredictability of extreme weather events, including prolonged heatwaves and erratic rainfall patterns, the ministry plans to integrate artificial intelligence with numerical models in its forecasting systems. This integration aims to provide more accurate and timely insights into potential future weather conditions.
Secretary Ravichandran emphasized the significant shift in both the frequency and nature of weather patterns. He highlighted that while earlier, clouds, particularly during the monsoon season, were distributed over broader areas, they now tend to be more concentrated and hold greater water volumes, leading to more intense rainfall events. This change in spatial rainfall distribution has resulted in both flooding and drought in different regions.
The ministry recognizes the need for enhanced observation capabilities to improve forecasting accuracy. Currently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s weather modeling system has a resolution of 12 kilometers, which limits its ability to capture localized weather events. The mission aims to improve this resolution to 6 kilometers and further enhance the regional modeling system resolution from 3 kilometers to 1 kilometer. To achieve this, the ministry plans to significantly increase the number of automatic weather stations, radars, radiosondes, and rain gauges across the country.
The plan also emphasizes the importance of dedicated satellites for weather profiling. The current reliance on indirect inferences from various satellites will be replaced with direct profiling of weather conditions at different altitudes. While the exact number of satellites required is yet to be determined, ISRO will be instrumental in supporting the ministry’s efforts.
To further enhance prediction accuracy, the ministry is exploring the integration of artificial intelligence with existing numerical weather models. This fusion aims to reduce the reliance on assumptions and improve the overall accuracy of forecasts. The ministry hopes this initiative will contribute to more accurate predictions, enabling better preparedness and countermeasures for mitigating the impact of extreme weather events.
The ministry has already begun work on the project, focusing on identifying the technical and observational requirements. In the coming months, the ministry will engage with various government bodies and ministries to gather input and refine the project details. The proposal is expected to be submitted to the government for approval by November. While specific targets and financial requirements are still being finalized, the ministry is optimistic about the potential of this national mission to significantly enhance India’s weather forecasting capabilities and provide the necessary tools for effective intervention in weather events.
