The Indian men’s chess team is on the cusp of achieving a historic feat at the 2024 Chess Olympiad, with a real shot at winning their first-ever gold medal in the open section. Following a resounding 2.5-1.5 victory over the top-seeded USA in the 10th round, India has seized the lead in the gold medal race. With 19 match points and a superior tie-break score compared to second-placed China (17 points), India is in a commanding position.
The upcoming 11th round pits India against Slovenia, while China faces the USA. This matchup favors India, as they are likely to face less resistance. The ultimate outcome, however, will hinge on the final round. Here’s a breakdown of the scenarios:
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If India wins or draws against Slovenia:
They will clinch the gold medal, regardless of the result in the China-USA match.*
If India loses to Slovenia but not by a 4-0 margin:
They will still secure the gold due to their superior Sonneborn–Berger (SB) tie-break score over China.*
If India loses to Slovenia 4-0 and China draws or loses:
India will still emerge victorious due to their better SB tie-break score.*
For China to win gold:
India must suffer a 4-0 defeat to Slovenia, and China must simultaneously defeat the USA by a 4-0 margin to surpass India in the tie-break score.The odds heavily favor India to claim the gold medal. While China’s chances depend on an unlikely combination of results, India’s victory seems increasingly probable. The final round will decide the fate of this historic achievement, but India’s current position is undoubtedly promising.
