In anticipation of an impending heatwave, the Indian government has taken proactive measures to bolster its power generation capacity by instructing all gas-based power stations to remain operational from May 1 to June 30. This directive is a strategic move aimed at mitigating the strain on the electricity grid during the anticipated surge in power demand, which reached an unprecedented 243 gigawatts last September. Projections indicate that this summer’s peak demand could touch 260GW.
Alongside this initiative, India has embarked on a significant expansion of its coal-based power capacity, with approximately 27GW currently under construction. The nation’s reliance on coal is evident in its position as the world’s second-largest coal producer after China. India’s 2023 National Electricity Plan outlines a substantial increase in domestic coal consumption, estimated to reach 866.4 million tonnes by 2026–2027 and further escalate to 1.025 billion tonnes by 2031–2032. Correspondingly, India’s coal production is anticipated to augment by 6 to 7 percent annually, reaching approximately 1.5 billion tonnes in 2029-30.
However, this expansion of coal-based power generation runs counter to the global trend of phasing down coal consumption to combat climate change. Several nations, including Greece, Britain, Denmark, and the United States, have made significant strides in reducing their reliance on coal for power generation. Ironically, India, a signatory to the 2015 Paris agreement, has witnessed a surge in coal power project approvals in recent years, indicating a disregard for the stringent conditions imposed by the National Energy Administration for new coal-fired power plants.
The United Nations Environment Programme’s Production Gap Report paints a sobering picture, revealing that governments worldwide intend to produce around 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030 than is compatible with meeting the climate goals set under the Paris agreement. While 151 national governments have pledged to achieve net zero emissions, and projections suggest a peaking of global demand for coal, oil, and gas this decade, current government plans will result in a rise in coal production worldwide until 2030 and in oil and gas production until at least 2050.
The Production Gap Report also highlights the substantial role of China and 10 other countries, including India, in the global coal landscape, accounting for 95 percent of the world’s coal capacity under consideration. China, in particular, has seen a notable increase in new construction starts for coal power plants, contributing to 95 percent of the capacity that began construction in 2023.
Last year, proposals for 20.9GW of new coal power projects emerged in countries outside of China, with India leading the charge. India proposed 11.4GW of additional coal capacity, surpassing any other year since 2016 and revitalizing several stalled projects. Kazakhstan and Indonesia followed suit with proposals for 4.6GW and 2.5GW, respectively. Additionally, 4.1GW of previously cancelled or shelved coal capacity was revived.
In contrast to India’s expansionary approach, the United States accounted for nearly half of the world’s coal power retirements in 2023, shuttering 9.7GW worth of capacity. However, globally, coal power plant retirements have slowed down, reaching their lowest level since 2011.
As global climate negotiations and net-zero targets gain traction, more countries acknowledge the imperative to reduce fossil fuel consumption and invest in clean energy projects. However, the challenge is compounded when two of the world’s largest growing economies, China and India, remain heavily reliant on coal for their energy needs and are also the biggest producers of coal. Despite commitments to phasing out fossil fuels, both countries face an arduous task in transitioning to cleaner energy sources, given their high electricity demand and large populations.
