India is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in August and September, providing a much-needed boost to the country’s agriculture and overall economy. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has attributed this favorable weather pattern to the developing La Niña conditions, which involves periodic cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD, monsoon rains in August are projected to be normal, ranging from 94% to 106% of the long-period average. The long-term average for August is 254.9mm based on data from 1971-2020, while the August-September period average is 422.8mm. While most regions are expected to experience above-normal rainfall in the coming months, some areas, including Ladakh, parts of the northeastern states, and Saurashtra and Kutch, are likely to receive below-normal precipitation.
The first two weeks of August are anticipated to bring consistent showers to the Punjab-Haryana-Uttar Pradesh-Bihar-West Bengal belt, offering relief to farmers who faced below-normal rainfall in the Gangetic plains during July. However, the IMD noted that rainfall activity across the country is expected to subside after the first week of August compared to July. Thankfully, September is likely to compensate for any deficits with above-normal showers, largely driven by the La Niña phenomenon.
The IMD also highlighted that the northern parts of Maharashtra, including the Vidarbha region, are likely to experience below-normal rainfall in August.
The June-September monsoon rainfall is crucial to India’s $3 trillion economy, accounting for nearly 75% of the country’s annual rains. These rains play a critical role in supporting agriculture, replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, and meeting power demands. Over half of India’s arable land is rain-fed, making agriculture a major employment generator.
Good rains in August and September are a positive sign for Indian farmers who rely heavily on these showers for irrigating standing crops. July saw scanty showers in key agricultural areas like Punjab, Haryana, and the Gangetic plains, even as most of peninsular India experienced excess rains.
According to Mohapatra, eastern Uttar Pradesh and surrounding areas received inadequate rainfall in July due to the monsoon trough being positioned south of its usual path. Typically, regions south of the trough receive significant rainfall, while areas to the north receive less. He also clarified that peninsular India has seen excess rainfall in July for the past five years, while the northern and northeastern regions have recorded below-normal rainfall for the past three years.
This year, there has been a significant shift in areas experiencing extremely heavy rainfall in June and July. The west coast, from southern Karnataka to Gujarat, along with central and eastern India, bore the brunt of the heavy rains, unlike the Himalayan regions last year. The weather bureau has also forecast that extremely heavy rainfall would continue along the west coast in parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, and Karnataka until August 3rd.
Despite the rains, India has continued to grapple with high temperatures this year. The IMD predicts that minimum temperatures will remain above normal across most regions in August. However, eastern coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, along with some parts of interior Andhra Pradesh, are forecasted to have below-normal minimum temperatures.
July 2024 recorded the highest-ever minimum temperatures for the country since 1901, with central, eastern, and northeastern regions breaking records set over a century ago, according to IMD data.
