India’s population is projected to reach a peak of 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before declining by 12% after that, according to the United Nations. Despite this projected decline, India is expected to remain the world’s most populous country for the entire century, as reported by the news agency PTI on Friday, July 12.
The world’s population is anticipated to grow over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. However, the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on July 11, suggests that the global population will decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
India’s current population is estimated at 1.45 billion and is expected to reach 1.69 billion by 2054. “India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it’s supposed to increase further,” said Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, UN DESA, as quoted in the PTI report.
In contrast, China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion, is projected to fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. This decline represents a significant loss, with China expected to experience absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, followed by Japan and Russia.
By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population, returning to the population size it had in the late 1950s, according to the report. This significant decline in China’s population projection is attributed to its current fertility rate, which stands at around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime. John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA, stated, “It relates to the level of fertility that’s observed currently in China. The current number is around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime.”
Wilmoth further explained that maintaining the current population without migration requires a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman. If fertility levels remain below this threshold, as in the case of China and other countries, the population is likely to decline over time.
