India’s power ministry is preparing to revise its projections for peak electricity demand following an unprecedented heatwave that pushed power consumption to record highs. The prolonged summer forced people to keep their air conditioners and fans running for extended periods, leading to a surge in demand. On May 30th, peak power demand in India reached a record 250 GW, nearing the Central Electricity Authority’s initial projection of 260 GW for this year.
Pankaj Agarwal, secretary of the Union ministry of power, acknowledged that the current projection of peak power demand reaching 384 GW by financial year 2031-32 might be an underestimate. He believes that the actual demand could easily exceed this figure and might even reach 400 GW by FY32.
To meet this escalating demand, India’s power generation capacity will need to be substantially increased from the current level of nearly 445 GW. This will require a significant expansion of both thermal and renewable energy sources. Agarwal highlighted the importance of increasing capacity to 900 GW, outlining the need to address financial challenges within the power distribution companies and ensure seamless integration of renewable energy sources.
States across the country have already begun revising their peak power projections, and the updated National Electricity Plan will reflect the revised national demand estimate.
Despite an ambitious plan to install 500 GW of non-fossil power generation capacity by 2030, India aims to add 80 GW of coal-based capacity by 2032 to address the surging power demand. The ministry recognizes the need to address the financial viability of power distribution companies and ensure smooth integration of renewable energy sources to achieve the government’s vision of a developed India by 2047.
Although electricity demand has decreased in recent weeks due to the arrival of monsoon rains and lower temperatures, experts warn that global temperatures are rising, leading to harsher summers in the future. In the first quarter of 2024-25 (April-June), electricity demand increased by approximately 9% compared to the same period last year, indicating a sustained upward trend in demand. The need to adapt to these changing conditions and ensure a reliable and sustainable power supply for India’s future growth is a significant challenge for the government.
