India’s horticulture production is poised for a slight dip in the current fiscal year, according to the government’s third advance estimates. Released on Saturday, the figures predict a 0.65% decline in overall production, bringing the total output to 353.19 million tonnes for 2023-24. This follows a previous prediction of 352.23 million tonnes made in June.
The most significant decline is anticipated in onion production, with a projected 19.76% drop to 24.24 million tonnes. This decline is attributed to lower yields in key growing regions, likely impacted by factors such as rainfall patterns. Other vegetables, including brinjal, elephant foot yam, and capsicum, are also expected to see reduced output. The potential decline in onion production is of particular concern due to its role in food inflation.
Potato production is also expected to fall, with estimates showing a 5.13% decline to 57.05 million tonnes. These drops in onion and potato production could pose challenges in controlling prices of these essential commodities, which play a crucial role in food inflation. India’s retail inflation climbed to 3.65% in August, a slight increase from July’s figure of 3.6%. This rise, however, remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target range of 2-6%.
Despite the fluctuations in individual crop yields, overall vegetable production is projected to remain stable at 205.80 million tonnes. The estimates indicate significant increases in the production of several vegetables, including tomatoes, cabbages, cauliflowers, tapioca, bottle gourd, pumpkin, carrots, cucumbers, bitter gourd, parwal, and okra. The surge in tomato production, expected to rise by 4.38% to 21.32 million tonnes, is largely attributed to last year’s price surge. The skyrocketing prices of tomatoes, reaching as high as ₹ 250 per kg, prompted farmers to increase cultivation in hopes of profiting from higher market prices. This increased production has contributed to a reduction in the cost of meals, with vegetarian thalis experiencing an 8% year-on-year decline and non-vegetarian meals seeing a 12% decrease.
On a brighter note, fruit production is expected to grow by 2.29%, reaching 112.73 million tonnes. This growth is driven by increases in mangoes, bananas, and other fruits. While apples, sweet oranges, guavas, and pomegranates are anticipated to see a decline, this is unlikely to overshadow the surge in fruit exports. Fruit exports are playing a crucial role in filling the gap created by the longstanding bans on cereals like rice and wheat.
The government’s estimates also project an increase in the production of honey, flowers, plantation crops, spices, and aromatic and medicinal plants compared to the previous year’s final estimates. India’s fresh fruits and vegetables export witnessed a 14% growth in FY24, reaching $3.65 billion.
