India’s monsoon season has been marked by both excess and deficient rainfall across different regions. While the country as a whole has received 7% above normal precipitation, eight states, including major rice-growing regions like Bihar and Punjab, are facing rain deficits. This uneven distribution has had a noticeable impact on agriculture, particularly rice production.
Punjab, a key basmati rice grower, recorded a 24% deficit in rainfall during the monsoon season, receiving only 275.6 mm of rain in the first three months (June-September). Bihar, known for its non-basmati rice varieties, also experienced a 25% deficit with 580.5 mm of precipitation.
On the other hand, states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Kerala, major non-basmati producers, have seen rainfall within the ‘normal’ category. Despite the rain deficiencies in some regions, farmers have cultivated rice across 39.4 million hectares, a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year. This is attributed to excess rainfall in other regions like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The uneven rainfall has also impacted the rice market. Market players have noted a significant increase in non-basmati rice sowing, while basmati rice cultivation, particularly Pusa 1121 and 1509 varieties, has declined. This trend is partly due to insufficient rain and unfavorable market conditions, with higher minimum export prices (MEP) making it difficult for Indian basmati exporters.
The limited basmati exports have led to a surplus of local stocks, which has caused basmati prices to drop by 20% since November. Pakistan, India’s rival in the global basmati market, is currently selling basmati at a lower price, putting Indian exports at a disadvantage.
Despite these challenges, India’s overall rice production is expected to be 136.7 million tonnes this year, slightly higher than last year’s 135 million tonnes.
In Delhi, the city recorded its highest number of rainy days in August since 2011, with 26 days of precipitation. The previous record was 11 rainy days, observed in September 2021, August 2012, and August 2013. This heavy rainfall can be attributed to several favorable weather conditions, including the active southwest monsoon and the development of six low-pressure systems in August, one of which intensified into a rare cyclone named ‘Asna’ in the Arabian Sea.
While August was the warmest month since 1901, with an all-India average monthly minimum temperature reaching a record high, September is expected to continue with above-normal rainfall. However, the IMD has issued a warning about the potential for floods and landslides in several regions due to the heavy rainfall.
Despite the current monsoon patterns, the La Niña phenomenon, characterized by cooling sea surface temperatures, is not expected to impact the current monsoon season as it is predicted to form by the end of September. La Niña usually leads to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, often causing floods. However, its impact is typically felt during the northeast monsoon season, which occurs between October and December.
