India has experienced a delayed and deficient monsoon, receiving 20% less rainfall than the long-period average since the start of the season on June 1st. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that overall precipitation for the entire month will also be below par.
Despite reaching the Indian mainland two days earlier than usual and rapidly covering many states, the rain-bearing system stalled between June 12th and 18th, leaving north India grappling with a scorching heat wave. However, conditions are now favorable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, northwest Bay of Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand over the next three to four days.
Between June 1st and 18th, India received a total of 64.5 mm of rainfall, significantly lower than the long-period average of 80.6 mm. Northwest India has witnessed a stark rainfall deficit, receiving only 10.2 mm (70% less than normal), while central India recorded 50.5 mm (31% less than normal). Conversely, the south peninsula received 106.6 mm (16% more than normal), and east and northeast India received 146.7 mm (15% less than normal).
The southwest monsoon initially made rapid progress, reaching the Nicobar Islands on May 19th, covering most parts of the south and some areas of the central Bay of Bengal by May 26th, along with Cyclone Remal. Simultaneously, it reached Kerala and the northeastern states on May 30th, two and six days earlier than normal, respectively. By June 12th, it had encompassed Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, most of southern Maharashtra, parts of southern Chhattisgarh and Odisha, and most of sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and all northeastern states.
However, since then, the monsoon’s progress has stalled. Its northern limit on June 18th extends through Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, and Vizianagaram.
The IMD has reported that 11 meteorological sub-divisions in India have received normal to large excess rainfall between June 1st and 18th, while 25 have experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall. The forecast indicates that the average rainfall over the country in June will most likely be below normal (less than 92% of the LPA).
While normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most areas of the southern peninsula and parts of northeast India, below-normal rainfall is anticipated in numerous areas of northwest and adjoining central India, as well as some parts of northeast India.
In a May-end presser, the IMD predicted that India could experience above-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106% of the LPA of 87 cm. However, the current situation suggests a deviation from this initial prediction.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agricultural landscape, with 52% of the net cultivated area dependent on it. It also plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation. The Central Water Commission reported that water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India had dropped to only 22% of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages in many states and significantly impacting hydropower generation.
June and July are considered the most critical monsoon months for agriculture as most of the sowing for the Kharif crop occurs during this period.
The current El Nino conditions, with the potential for La Nina to set in by August-September, could further impact the monsoon’s trajectory. El Nino is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, while La Nina typically leads to abundant rainfall during the monsoon season. The evolving weather patterns and their potential impact on the monsoon’s progress are closely monitored by meteorological agencies and agricultural stakeholders.
