Despite India’s remarkable global rise, characterized by its growing economic might, formidable military capabilities, and participation in key international institutions such as the G-20 and the Quad, its regional influence in South Asia has been waning. This paradox can be attributed to several factors, including the rise of China, the withdrawal of the United States from the region, and India’s shift towards the Indo-Pacific.
China’s rise as a regional superpower has presented a significant challenge to India’s dominance in South Asia. Faced with a rising neighbor, India is experiencing stiff geopolitical competition for influence, with smaller nations in the region engaging in balancing strategies to maintain their own interests.
The United States’ withdrawal from the region has also contributed to India’s declining influence. The American withdrawal has created a power vacuum that China has been keen to fill, further complicating the geopolitical landscape of South Asia.
India’s focus on the Indo-Pacific has also stretched its resources and attention away from its continental neighborhood. While India’s global prominence as an Indo-Pacific power is undeniable, it may have come at the expense of its regional influence.
To address this paradox, India must adopt a comprehensive and nuanced approach that acknowledges the changing regional landscape. It is imperative for India to modernize its primacy in South Asia, taking into account the region’s altered geopolitical realities and the rise of China. By focusing on its strengths, leveraging maritime opportunities, and engaging with partners, India can counter China’s growing influence and maintain its relevance in South Asia.
Reclaiming India’s Buddhist heritage, fostering informal contacts between political and civil society actors, and encouraging unofficial conflict management processes can also help India retain its influence in the region. Acknowledging the changed regional dynamics and embracing a non-India centric lens will allow India to effectively address the challenges posed by its declining regional influence and maintain its global aspirations.
