The race for Iowa’s four House seats is heating up, with a new poll suggesting that Democrats are gaining ground in what could be a significant shift in the state’s political landscape. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted from October 28th to 31st, reveals a competitive environment with Democrats holding the lead in two of the four districts, potentially putting two Republican-held seats in play.
The poll shows Democrats with a commanding 16-point lead in the 1st Congressional District, where challenger Christina Bohannan is facing incumbent Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. This represents a significant turnaround from the 2022 election, when Miller-Meeks secured victory by nearly 7 percentage points.
In the 3rd Congressional District, Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam holds a 7-point advantage over Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn. This district is also witnessing a tight race, with voters indicating a preference for the Democratic candidate over the Republican incumbent.
While Democrats are making gains, Republicans are still ahead in the 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts. In the 2nd District, Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a three-point lead over Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery. In the 4th District, incumbent Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra enjoys a 16-point lead over Democratic challenger Ryan Melton.
This new poll marks the first time since September 2020 that Democrats have a statewide advantage in the congressional races. In the last poll, Republicans were favored statewide by a margin of 8 points. However, since then, the political climate in Iowa appears to have shifted toward Democrats, with a discernible shift in voter sentiment across the state.
The poll sampled 808 likely Iowa voters, including those who had already voted or who indicated their intent to vote. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, while the margin of error for congressional districts is a maximum of plus or minus 7.2 percentage points.
With the election drawing closer, these polls provide a snapshot of the current political landscape in Iowa and highlight the competitiveness of the races for the state’s House seats. The results underscore the potential for significant changes in the state’s congressional representation, as Democrats seek to make gains and Republicans work to hold on to their current majority.
