In a move signaling heightened tensions in the Middle East, Iran has banned its airspace for civilian aircraft, a measure often implemented before missile launches or military operations. The ban, formally known as a ‘NOTAM’, applies to the country’s central, western, and northwestern regions, urging civilian aircraft to alter their routes. This action is widely seen as a prelude to an anticipated attack on Israel, following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.
Iran has vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly ordering direct attacks on Israel. The attack, considered a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if,’ has led to frantic efforts from Western and regional leaders to contain the fallout. Despite these efforts, Iran has reportedly informed Arab leaders that it is unconcerned about triggering a full-scale war in the region.
The United States, along with Israel, has assessed the Iranian attack as ‘imminent’ and has warned that it could begin as early as Monday. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a call with G-7 counterparts, suggested the attack could commence within the next 24-48 hours. These calls, alongside other engagements with Iran, are part of last-ditch attempts to pressure Iran and its ally Hezbollah to minimize the scale of their attacks.
The United States and Israel are anticipating a larger attack than the one that occurred in April, when Iran launched over 600 missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel following the assassination of Iranian commanders in Syria. This time, the attack is expected to involve Hezbollah, whose military chief Fuad Shukr was also assassinated by Israel. Unlike in April, Iran has so far refrained from providing specific warnings about the attack, potentially hindering Israel’s defense efforts.
In response to the looming threat, the United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East and is attempting to revive a coalition of countries, including the UK, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, which helped counter the Iranian attack in April. However, the anti-Israel sentiment in the region, fueled by Haniyeh’s killing, has made coalition formation challenging.
