Last week, the US accused Iran of supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles for use in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, recent reports from Reuters, citing sources within European diplomacy and intelligence, have revealed that Iran did not include mobile launchers with these missiles. This raises several questions: Why did Iran withhold these essential components? And what impact does this have on the situation in Ukraine?
According to sources, the US announced the delivery of the Fath-360 missiles before Iran had actually sent the launchers. While the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of the threat these missiles pose to European security, he did not disclose the specific number of missiles supplied or the timing of the delivery.
The absence of launchers raises eyebrows, particularly as the Fath-360 missiles, with a range of up to 75 miles, could significantly challenge Ukrainian air defenses, which are already under constant pressure to adapt to Russian advancements. Iranian state media claims the missile can reach its target at four times the speed of sound.
Experts have offered various explanations for Iran’s decision to withhold the launchers. Fabian Hinz, an Iranian missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that the civilian trucks modified for launching these missiles may not be durable enough to withstand the harsh winter conditions in Ukraine.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security, offers another perspective. He points out that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and other officials are scheduled to meet with European diplomats at the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York. The meeting is focused on discussing Tehran’s nuclear program and regional tensions. Albright speculates that Iran may be delaying the delivery of the launchers to create room for diplomatic negotiations. He argues that the presence of Iranian missiles raining down on Ukraine could lead to condemnation at the General Assembly, potentially hindering Iran’s diplomatic efforts.
While the reasons behind Iran’s decision remain unclear, the absence of launchers adds a new layer of complexity to the situation in Ukraine and highlights the ongoing geopolitical maneuvering surrounding the conflict.
