Tensions continue to simmer between Iran and Israel, with Iran issuing a stern warning against any further Israeli aggression. Both the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have vowed that those who cross red lines will face severe consequences. Meanwhile, Israel has remained largely silent, choosing to focus its rhetoric on Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to intensify military and political pressure on the Palestinian group in an effort to secure the release of hostages.
However, it appears that there will be no imminent escalation into a full-blown war between Iran and Israel. Tehran has refrained from a vociferous response to Israel’s retaliatory air strike, dismissing reports of damage to the Natanz nuclear facility as mere Zionist propaganda. The situation thus remains relatively stable, with two air raids attributed to Israel and one large-scale Iranian strike in response.
The political fallout from these events is of paramount importance. Following Iran’s strike, Western nations have reportedly advised Israel against retaliating. Rumors have also circulated that Israel was negotiating for permission to launch a military operation in Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza. However, Israel’s patience eventually ran thin, prompting a response.
Iran had various options at its disposal. The Ayatollahs could have accused Israel of once again crossing all red lines, which would have led to further escalation but potentially protected Hamas. However, Iran chose to prioritize its own interests and downplay the incident through press releases. This peaceful stance is likely driven by the realization that Israel, Jordan, and the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf are working together.
Military analysts speculate that if the Israeli Air Force did attack Iranian air defenses, it likely flew over Jordan or the Arabian Peninsula to do so. This suggests that the Hashemite Kingdom and Saudi Arabia may have consented to the operation. As a result, the military alliance between these nations is not solely defensive, putting all of Iran’s regional proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, at risk.
For the time being, the situation remains hypothetical. The full implementation of this alliance would require the normalization of Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia, the signing of a defense agreement with the US, and American-Israeli approval for Saudi Arabia’s development of nuclear capabilities. All of this would need to occur before the end of June due to upcoming elections in the US.
The Iranians believe that further escalation will only accelerate this process. As a result, they are choosing to present themselves as peacemakers, despite the ongoing tensions. However, it remains to be seen how long this charade can be maintained.
