In March 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, declared Iran to be the nation’s foremost threat. His unwavering opposition to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal reflected his stance as a staunch leader against perceived Iranian aggression. Despite Netanyahu’s tough stance, it was during his tenure that Iran launched a massive barrage of drones and missiles on Israel on April 14, 2024.
This unprecedented assault, the first direct attack on Israel by a state actor in over three decades, shattered Israel’s deterrence and exposed the country’s vulnerability. The United States, while still providing support, restrained Israel’s response, which was deemed “feeble” by Netanyahu’s own National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir.
The multi-dimensional crisis underscores Iran’s growing risk appetite, America’s strategic reluctance, and Israel’s near-total dependency on the United States for its security. Since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, the Biden administration has prioritized preventing the conflict from escalating into a regional war. President Biden offered support for Israel’s military operation in Gaza while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic initiatives to maintain stability. However, this approach faced challenges due to Washington’s limited influence over Iran and Israel’s simultaneous engagement in two theaters – Gaza and its broader efforts to counter Iranian influence.
When Israel bombed the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, 2024, killing senior Revolutionary Guard officers, the potential for an Israel-Iran confrontation intensified. The U.S. anticipated Iran’s retaliation and leaked intelligence to the press. President Biden recognized that a successful Iranian attack and subsequent Israeli retaliation could lead to a regional war that the U.S. could not avoid.
With other strategic priorities in Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and its allies intercepted “99%” of Iranian projectiles, averting a disaster on Israeli soil. Subsequently, Biden informed Netanyahu that the U.S. would not participate in any Israeli retaliation against Iran, signaling a clear message of de-escalation.
A shadow war between Israel and Iran has persisted for years, with Israel conducting over 400 air strikes in Syria alone to target Iranian interests. However, Iran’s muted response to these operations emboldened Israel to escalate its shadow war in the wake of the October 7 attack. Israel killed senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser Sayyed Razi Mousavi in Syria on December 25, again eliciting a muted response from Iran.
When intelligence indicated the presence of top IRGC commander Mohammed Reza Zahedi at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Israel carried out a strike. Israeli officials later expressed surprise at Iran’s subsequent direct attack.
Iran’s retaliation has left Netanyahu in a dilemma. While he favors force against Iran, the strategic reality at the time of the attack was not conducive to a unilateral Israeli response. Netanyahu sought America’s leadership, participation, and support, but Biden’s refusal to join any retaliation limited Israel’s options.
Despite the ongoing war in Gaza, Netanyahu could have tested America’s resolve to stay out of a direct Israel-Iran war. However, Israel opted for a largely symbolic strike inside Iran, targeting a radar system, and refrained from claiming responsibility. This move was a rare victory for the Biden administration in its efforts to restrain its ally and avoid a regional war. From an Israeli perspective, however, the response was seen as weak and insufficient to bolster its deterrence.
Iran has demonstrated strategic patience in its shadow war with Israel, viewing its growing regional presence as a long-term objective. Despite losing key personnel, Israeli strikes have not significantly diminished Iran’s influence. Its nuclear program continues to expand, and its proxies continue to gain strength.
However, the Israeli bombing of its embassy annex appears to have prompted a strategic shift in Tehran. Iran has resolved to impose costs on Israel for its continued attacks on Iranian officials. This change may also be influenced by Iran’s improved strategic ties with Russia and China, its assessment of America’s low appetite for involvement in another prolonged West Asian war, and Israel’s protracted and challenging conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Iran’s view is that the October 7 attack and subsequent Gaza conflict have weakened Israel, allowing it to alter the rules of engagement by launching an open attack. Despite the collective defense efforts of the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Jordan, and Israel, some Iranian ballistic missiles still reached Israeli soil. Israel’s meek response, refusal to claim its attack, and calls for restraint from its Western allies suggest that Iran’s risk assessment was accurate, potentially emboldening Tehran further.
As of now, Iran stands as the only country in West Asia to have launched missile/drone attacks against the United States and two of its closest allies. In 2019, drones attacked two Saudi oil facilities, disrupting half of the kingdom’s output for days. In 2020, Iran launched ballistic missiles at America’s As-Assad air base in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. And in April 2024, it attacked Israel. On all three occasions, Iran faced minimal consequences, highlighting the evolving strategic landscape in West Asia.
