Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has declared that Iran’s nuclear weapon breakout time has likely shrunk to a mere one or two weeks. This breakout time represents the period required to produce sufficient weapons-grade material for the development of a nuclear warhead. This assessment, the most alarming to date from a US official, underscores the increasing urgency surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Blinken’s remarks follow reports of Iran amplifying its production of fissile material.
“We’re in a very bad place,” Blinken stated at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, as reported by CNN. “Iran, as a result of the nuclear agreement being scrapped, instead of being at least a year away from possessing the breakout capacity to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon, is now likely only one or two weeks away from doing so,” he explained. “They haven’t produced a weapon itself, but that’s something of course that we track very, very carefully,” the US diplomat added.
Regarding America’s response, Blinken emphasized that the US policy remains steadfastly focused on preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He underscored that President Biden’s administration intends to achieve its objectives through diplomatic channels. Blinken’s statement arrives a year after a senior US Defense Department official cautioned that Iran could now produce enough fissile material for “one bomb” in approximately “12 days.”
Since then, the Biden administration has engaged in over a year of indirect negotiations with Iran, aiming to revive the Iranian nuclear deal. This deal, initially agreed upon in 2015, was unilaterally withdrawn by the US under former President Donald Trump in 2018. Efforts to revive the deal faced a significant setback in late 2022 when the US accused Iran of making “unreasonable” demands related to an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA was probing unexplained traces of uranium discovered at undisclosed Iranian locations.
Earlier this month, Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that his administration would be open to engaging with the West. However, a senior State Department official informed CNN that they no longer believe a return to the previous nuclear agreement is feasible. “We’re in a very different world, a lot of time has elapsed, and Iran has done a lot of things that make a return to JCPOA non-viable,” the official asserted.
Similar claims were voiced by State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “We have no expectations that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies,” the US official stated earlier this month. “Ultimately, it’s not the president who holds the ultimate authority over Iran’s future policy; it is the supreme leader, and we’ve certainly observed the direction he has chosen for Iran. Undoubtedly, if the new president had the power to take steps to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, to stop funding terrorism, and to halt destabilizing activities within the region, those would be measures we would welcome. However, needless to say, we harbor no expectations that this is what is likely to occur,” he concluded.
