The confirmation of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah’s death following an Israeli strike has ignited a wave of questions about Iran’s response. As a creation of the Islamic Republic, Hezbollah, a proxy force nurtured for decades and funded with billions of dollars, remains a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy. The close relationship between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah, often described as that of father and son, makes Nasrallah’s death a significant blow to the Iranian leadership.
The recent setbacks experienced by Hezbollah, including intelligence failures and the assassination of senior commanders, have already strained relations with Iran. Nasrallah’s death compounds these challenges, leaving Khamenei with a delicate balancing act. The Iranian leadership cannot afford to let Hezbollah, its most important proxy, suffer humiliation and harm without a response. Such inaction would not only weaken Hezbollah but also signal the unraveling of Iran’s broader regional strategy, which aims to eradicate Israel, empower Islamist groups, and expel US forces from the Middle East.
Faced with this complex scenario, Khamenei has three options to consider:
Option 1: Logistical Support and Propaganda
Similar to the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, Iran could provide logistical and propaganda support. Ismail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, would be dispatched to guide and control Hezbollah’s remaining forces. Qaani would also coordinate proxy attacks against Israel from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. However, the effectiveness of this strategy is questionable, considering the recent Israeli actions against Hezbollah.
Option 2: Regional Escalation
This option involves escalating the conflict through Iranian proxies to destabilize the region. The IRGC would target the interests of the US, Europe, and Arab states in the Middle East, aiming to pressure Israel into backing down. Potential targets include oil refineries, commercial shipping, and Western military positions. Additionally, the IRGC could intensify its campaign of terror against the international Jewish community. This strategy, while potentially effective in creating chaos, could backfire by triggering a more aggressive response from Israel.
Option 3: Direct Strikes on Israel
This option, while appealing to the IRGC’s most radical elements, carries significant risks. While reports suggest Hezbollah has urged Iran to intervene directly, Khamenei and the IRGC would need to launch strikes far more impactful than the symbolic ones seen earlier this year. The success of such strikes is uncertain, and a direct retaliation from Israel against IRGC positions in Iran is almost guaranteed, an outcome the regime seeks to avoid.
The Likely Outcome
Given the IRGC’s asymmetric doctrine and military infrastructure, a combination of the first two options appears most likely: providing logistical support while simultaneously destabilizing and creating chaos in the region. Khamenei faces a challenging decision amidst internal economic turmoil and a deeply unhappy population. Any weakening of Iran’s economy, particularly its substantial infrastructure deficit, could fuel further unrest against the regime. The ongoing tensions further exacerbate the pressure on Khamenei, making it a critical juncture for Iran’s leadership.
With Nasrallah’s death, Khamenei faces a difficult choice. No matter the path he chooses, the outcome is likely to be a significant loss for Iran and its leadership.
