## Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate: Airstrikes and Missile Barrages Threaten Regional Stability
The Middle East is once again on edge as tensions between Israel and Iran reach a fever pitch. On Saturday, Israel launched airstrikes targeting multiple sites in Iran, with explosions echoing around Tehran. The Israeli army spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, proudly declared on social media, “We carried out targeted and precise attacks against military targets in Iran – and thwarted immediate threats to the State of Israel.” This bold move raises a critical question: is this the escalation that the world has been warning Israel against?
This latest escalation comes hot on the heels of Iran’s missile barrage on Israeli cities, where at least 180 ballistic missiles were fired on October 2nd. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed this action was in retaliation for the loss of civilian lives in Gaza and Lebanon due to Israeli strikes, as well as targeted assassinations of IRGC, Hamas, and Hezbollah leaders. The IRGC explicitly aimed for three military bases in Tel Aviv, signaling a significant shift in the conflict’s intensity.
A Historical Rivalry:
The relationship between Israel and Iran has been characterized by hostility and mistrust since 1948. While Israel has engaged in various conflicts with Arab forces, direct warfare with Iran has been limited. Israel often accuses neighboring countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine of acting as proxies for Iranian influence. Over the years, Israel has engaged in covert operations against Iranian interests, including cyberattacks and targeted assassinations of key figures in Iran’s nuclear program, such as nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Recent incidents include the killing of a general on September 27 alongside Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and an airstrike on April 1, 2024, on Iran’s consular annex in Damascus, which reportedly killed seven Revolutionary Guards members, including two high-ranking officials. These actions have further fueled tensions and created a dangerous cycle of retaliation.
Military Strength: A Comparison:
The military capabilities of both Israel and Iran are substantial, adding fuel to the fire of the current conflict. According to The Military Balance 2023, Iran boasts an active military force of 610,000 personnel, including 350,000 in the army and 190,000 in the IRGC. In contrast, Israel has 169,500 active personnel, but a strong reserve force of 465,000.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Iran’s military spending was $10.3 billion in 2023, while Israel’s expenditure soared to $27.5 billion, partly due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Israel’s defense strategy centers around the Iron Dome, a highly effective missile defense system capable of intercepting most incoming projectiles. There are 10 Iron Dome batteries scattered around Israel. Other systems intercept medium and long-range missiles. The David’s Sling intercepts missiles ranging between 40km and 300km. The Arrow System intercepts missiles with a range of up to 2,400km.
Iran, on the other hand, has a diverse range of surface-to-air missile defense systems. These include the over 42 long-range Russian-manufactured S-200s, S-300s and local Bavar-373; the over 59 medium-range US MIM-23 Hawk, HQ-2J and Khordad-15; and the 279 short-range Chinese-manufactured CH-SA-4 and 9K331 Tor-M1. Not to forget, Iran deployed the short-range, low-altitude Azarakhsh, which means “thunderbolt” in Persian. It is an infrared detection system, equipped with radar and electro-optic systems to detect and intercept targets.
Ballistic Missile Capabilities:
The Missile Defense Project of the US-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), reveals that Iran has at least 12 different types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles in its arsenal. These range from the Tondar 69, which has a range of 150km to the Khorramshahr and Sejjil, which both range up to 2,000km. Israel has at least four different types of small, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, ranging from the LORA with a range of 280km (174 miles) to the Jericho-3 with a range between 4,800km and 6,500km.
Nuclear Ambitions:
While Israel is believed to have around 90 nuclear warheads, Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a point of contention. Iran operates a complex nuclear program and has facilities that could eventually lead to weaponization. However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has declared a religious edict against nuclear weapons, complicating the discourse.
A Precarious Situation:
As Israel and Iran inch closer to direct confrontation, the global community watches with concern. The ongoing tit-for-tat military actions and escalating rhetoric signal a precarious situation, with potential repercussions not just for the two nations but for regional and global stability. The future remains uncertain, and the world will be closely monitoring these developments.
