Japan’s political landscape has taken a dramatic turn as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his decision to step down from his leadership role within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This decision, marking the end of his nearly three-year tenure, comes amidst a period of turmoil characterized by plummeting approval ratings, persistent political scandals, and a struggling economy. Kishida’s departure has sparked a leadership race within the LDP, with several prominent figures vying to succeed him and shape the future of Japanese politics.
The roots of Kishida’s decision lie in the mounting pressure he faced from both within the party and from the public. A series of political scandals, including allegations of unrecorded kickbacks within the LDP, severely eroded public trust in his administration. Kishida acknowledged the toll these controversies had taken, stating that they had “eroded trust and weighed heavily on my decision.” Adding to his woes was the economic landscape, marked by rising inflation and a weakening yen. The public’s frustration with the economic situation intensified, contributing to Kishida’s declining popularity. A recent poll conducted by NHK indicated that his approval rating had plummeted to a mere 25%, a stark contrast to the 54% he enjoyed when he first assumed office in October 2021.
As the LDP prepares for its leadership contest in September, several prominent figures have emerged as potential successors. Among them, former Japanese Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba stands out as a strong contender, consistently ranking high in media polls. Ishiba, known for his defence expertise and his long-standing rivalry with former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has been a vocal critic of the current political climate. He has advocated for greater transparency and accountability in political fundraising, a stance that has resonated with many amidst the ongoing scandal.
Taro Kono, the current Digital Transformation Minister and a former foreign and defence minister, is another key contender. Kono is often viewed as a reformist, particularly popular outside of Japan’s political center, Nagatacho. He narrowly lost to Kishida in the 2021 LDP presidential election and has since maintained a high profile, despite facing criticism for issues related to the My Number national identification system. Kono has pledged to utilize digital technology to enhance transparency in political finance, positioning himself as a candidate for change.
Toshimitsu Motegi, the LDP Secretary-General and a veteran politician, is also in the running for the leadership position. Despite being a key supporter of Kishida, Motegi is rumored to harbour his own ambitions. He possesses extensive experience in both foreign and trade policy but is generally perceived as less popular among the public compared to his rivals. Motegi’s role in resolving a recent dispute between the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito has kept him in the political spotlight, but it remains to be seen whether he can garner the necessary support within the party.
Sanae Takaichi, the Economic Security Minister, is another potential candidate. A staunch conservative and close ally of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi participated in the 2021 LDP leadership election but was eliminated in the first round. Her hawkish views on foreign policy and economic security have earned her a dedicated following, although her path to the premiership remains uncertain, given her lack of factional backing within the LDP.
Finally, Yoko Kamikawa, the current Foreign Minister, has also been mentioned as a potential successor. Kamikawa, who has held various high-profile positions, including Justice Minister, has been a key figure in Japan’s diplomatic efforts. However, her relatively low standing in public opinion polls suggests that her candidacy may be a long shot.
Kishida’s departure has injected a degree of uncertainty into Japan’s political landscape. The next LDP leader, and by extension the next prime minister, will have to navigate a complex environment characterized by economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and the need for internal party reforms. Shoki Omori, Chief Desk Strategist at Mizuho Securities, commented on the market implications of Kishida’s announcement, telling TIME magazine, “The market implication is that Japanese politics is going to be foggy. Market participants are going to dislike the uncertain situation, especially those investing in risk assets, such as equities.” This sentiment reflects broader concerns about Japan’s political stability and the potential for a return to the revolving door of prime ministers that has plagued the country in the past. While no general election is required until 2025, the new LDP leader may choose to call an early election to secure a stronger mandate. However, the LDP’s dominance in the Diet, coupled with its coalition with Komeito, suggests that any election is likely to reaffirm the party’s control of the government.
