The 2024 US presidential election is fast approaching, and the race for the White House is tightening. While Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump campaign vigorously in key battleground states, a significant shift in voting patterns amongst Jewish voters is emerging, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states, historically crucial for Democratic victories, are now witnessing a complex interplay of anxieties and allegiances, potentially impacting the election’s outcome.
Rona Kaufman, a resident of Pittsburgh, encapsulates this evolving sentiment. She, along with many members of her generation and older generations, have traditionally voted Democrat. However, Kaufman’s sister displaying a Trump sign in her yard signifies a dramatic change. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has fueled this shift, leading many Jewish voters to feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and consider a vote for Trump.
While most Jewish voters still lean Democrat, their growing disillusionment is a significant factor. The 2024 election feels unprecedented, especially in light of the ongoing repercussions from last year’s attack by Hamas on Israel. The war’s complexities, coupled with anxieties over rising antisemitism and the perceived weakness of the Biden administration towards Iran, are shaping their political outlook.
This shift has not gone unnoticed by both Harris and Trump. Both candidates recognize the critical role Jewish votes play in a tight race. Harris navigates the complex emotions of traditional Democratic groups, particularly Jews and Arab Americans, regarding the war in Gaza. She strives to balance support for Israel while addressing concerns about civilian casualties and the devastating impact on the region. The Biden administration has also urged Israel to cease its military actions, including the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces.
Trump, on the other hand, exploits this growing sentiment amongst Jewish voters. He positions himself as the “best friend Jewish Americans have ever had in the White House,” criticizing Harris for her stance on Israel and suggesting those who don’t vote for him “need their head examined.” While historically Jewish voters have leaned towards the Democratic Party, recent surveys indicate a potential shift, with many re-evaluating their support in light of Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and potentially Iran.
The conflict has intensified scrutiny on the US-Israel relationship, particularly as the US continues providing significant military aid. Many Jewish Americans are increasingly concerned about antisemitic incidents in the US and the surge of anti-Israel protests on college campuses, further fueling feelings of insecurity. The 2018 Tree of Life synagogue attack in Pittsburgh, where a white supremacist gunman killed 11 worshippers, remains a potent reminder of these anxieties.
The Republican Party, led by Trump, is actively engaging Jewish voters, highlighting the divisions within the Democratic Party. They emphasize the tension between the party’s longstanding support for Israel and a growing faction that accuses Israel of war crimes in Gaza, calls for an unconditional end to attacks on Hamas, and demands an end to US military support for Israel. This message has resonated with some Jewish voters, who typically lean Democratic.
However, Harris’ supporters highlight her longstanding commitment to fighting antisemitism. Her husband, Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish, leads a task force dedicated to developing a strategy to combat antisemitism, a role he assumed even before the Hamas attack on Israel. Emhoff has actively engaged with Jewish audiences, participating in the groundbreaking of a new complex to replace Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue.
Yet, while some perceive the Biden administration’s support for Israel as unwavering, others view it as conditional. The administration’s urging Israel to avoid striking Iran’s nuclear program or oil fields, coupled with extending sanctions waivers to Iran, fuels concerns about a perceived weakness towards Iran. While emphasizing their support for Israel, the Biden administration emphasizes the importance of ensuring the safety and security of the Jewish people worldwide.
This tension is reflected in the political landscape of Pennsylvania, where voters report unprecedented outreach from both campaigns. Trump, along with other Republicans, capitalize on the anxiety surrounding Iran’s potential threat to Israel. They emphasize the need for a strong stance against Iran, a sentiment echoed by some Jewish voters who traditionally lean Democratic.
However, many Jews who support Harris view Trump as a threat to democracy, particularly due to his comments about using the military against domestic adversaries, his promotion of dual-loyalty stereotypes about Jews, and his scapegoating of Jews in the event of defeat. His criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the Hamas attack, while praising Hezbollah, further exacerbates concerns among this group.
As the 2024 election approaches, the US faces a critical juncture. The evolving dynamics of Jewish political engagement, driven by a complex blend of anxieties about the future of Israel, concerns over rising antisemitism, and a perceived shift in the Democratic Party’s stance, are likely to significantly influence the outcome of the election. The Jewish vote, once considered a solid Democratic bloc, is now a crucial battleground, with both candidates vying for their support in a race that is closer than ever.
