In a major development for political prediction markets, Kalshi has resumed accepting bets on the outcome of the US congressional elections. This comes after a US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia lifted a ban imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC had previously attempted to halt Kalshi’s operations while it appealed a lower court ruling that favored the platform.
Kalshi founder, Tarek Mansour, celebrated the decision on X, stating “U.S. presidential election markets are legal. Officially. Finally.” The court’s ruling effectively legalizes prediction markets for US presidential elections, a significant step for the industry.
Following the court’s decision, Kalshi self-certified a contract with the CFTC regarding the outcome of the presidential election. This contract, “Will pres candidate or another party Representative win the Presidency by being the first inaugurated as President for the year Term of Office?”, is now available for betting.
Kalshi’s website currently features two active contracts related to the congressional elections: “Which party will win the Senate?” and “Which party will win the House?”. As of now, around $45,000 has been wagered on the Senate election outcome, while $20,000 worth of contracts have been purchased for the House election. The presidential contract, while teased, was not yet open for betting at the time of writing, but was expected to be launched later that day.
This development has the potential to significantly impact the US election betting market, which has so far been dominated by platforms like Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform. Polymarket, claiming to be the world’s largest prediction market, has seen over $1 billion wagered on the 2024 presidential election, primarily focused on the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Interestingly, Polymarket is unavailable to US users due to federal regulations.
This ruling marks a crucial moment for the political prediction market landscape in the United States. It signals a potential shift towards greater acceptance and accessibility for platforms like Kalshi, offering alternative perspectives on the outcome of elections and potentially influencing political discourse.
