The race for the 2024 Presidential election is heating up, and Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing a significant boost in her chances. The Economist’s latest election forecast paints a compelling picture: Harris is predicted to have a 3 in 5 chance of winning the Electoral College in November, while Donald Trump’s chances stand at 2 in 5. This marks the strongest position Harris has held since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate.
The forecast predicts a decisive victory for Harris, with 281 Electoral College votes compared to Trump’s projected 257. This shift in momentum is not new, as Harris’s odds have surged by 10 percentage points over the past three weeks. Previously, her chances were at an even 50-50 split with Trump as of September 8th.
Other indicators support Harris’s upward trajectory. Newsweek reports that her overall probability of winning the election has increased by 6 percentage points, climbing from 52% to 58% since September 8th. Conversely, Trump’s chances have declined by 7 percentage points, dropping from 48% to 41% during the same period.
The forecast further suggests that Harris will secure victory in four key swing states: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump is projected to win in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. It’s worth noting that the margins in these swing states are so narrow that they remain highly competitive.
Despite varying polls, Harris consistently leads in every polling aggregator. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker places Harris 2.8 points ahead, with 48.6% of the vote compared to Trump’s 45.7%. Race to the White House gives Harris a 60% chance of winning, with 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248. However, data analyst Nate Silver’s polling tracker shows Harris ahead by 3 points, but his Electoral College predictions are less favorable for the Democrat. In his newsletter, Silver stated that his model shows the Electoral College as a toss-up.
In response to this forecast, Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung criticized Harris’s campaign, stating, “Kamala Harris is in desperation mode; that’s why she keeps lying about her positions. She knows her policies have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that threatens every community.”
The forecast’s significance lies in its reflection of a broader acceptance and approval of Harris’s policies and leadership style, key factors as she potentially gears up for a presidential campaign. Experts attribute this rise in Harris’s poll numbers to several factors. Her visibility and active engagement in critical national issues have resonated well with the electorate. Her advocacy for comprehensive healthcare reforms, her stance on climate change, and her vocal support for social justice initiatives have particularly stood out, aligning her closely with the priorities of a significant segment of the Democratic base.
This new forecast offers a compelling glimpse into the shifting dynamics of the 2024 Presidential election, indicating that Harris’s momentum is carrying her closer to the White House.
