The 2024 US presidential race is heating up, with early in-person voting kicking off in several states just six weeks before the election. While the battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is expected to be fiercely contested, recent polls suggest a potential advantage for the Democratic nominee.
Multiple surveys, including those conducted by The Economist and Outward Intelligence, show Harris leading Trump by a comfortable margin. The Economist’s polling averages place Harris at 50%, eight points ahead of Trump’s 46%. Meanwhile, Outward Intelligence’s survey, conducted on September 20, reveals Harris with 51.2% support, compared to Trump’s 44.6%.
Other post-debate polls, such as those by the Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena College, also depict a similar trend, with Harris consistently polling at 50% and Trump at 46%.
Furthermore, a poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, shows Harris leading Trump by 49-46%. The survey, with a margin of error of 4.4%, highlights Harris’s significant support among young voters and people of color, demonstrating a substantial shift in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Prominent American statistician Nate Silver’s projections also offer insight into the potential outcome. According to USA Today, Silver predicts a 48.9% chance of Harris winning the popular vote, granting her nearly a 3% advantage over Trump, who stands at 46%. However, Silver’s projections also suggest a possibility of Harris winning the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College, a scenario that would ultimately decide the presidency. Silver’s prediction indicates Trump has a 56.2% chance of winning the electoral college vote, while Harris trails at 43.5%.
With the race remaining tight, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by factors such as voter turnout, key swing states, and the effectiveness of each candidate’s campaign strategies. The next few weeks will be crucial for both candidates as they attempt to secure the necessary votes to claim victory in the upcoming election.
