While Vice President Kamala Harris currently has a slight edge over Republican candidate Donald Trump, the 2024 presidential election remains a close race. Veteran pollster Nate Silver, renowned for his political analysis, has focused on two crucial swing states: North Carolina and Georgia.
Silver emphasizes the pivotal role of North Carolina in the election. He describes it as the “hottest club in the electoral college,” highlighting its early start to voting and the potential for significant influence on the outcome. According to Silver’s model, North Carolina is the third most likely “tipping state” after Pennsylvania and Michigan. He asserts that a Harris victory in North Carolina would boost her chances of securing the Electoral College win to a whopping 97%.
Silver further notes that Harris’s polling average in North Carolina slightly surpasses that in neighboring Georgia. He predicts an 86% chance of both states voting in unison, either for Harris or Trump.
While both states share some similarities – racial diversity and a non-citizen population above the national median – Silver points out key differences. North Carolina, he observes, has a larger white population, potentially leading some to believe it could swing back towards the Democrats. Conversely, Georgia is younger and wealthier.
Silver cautions against overestimating the predictability of state trends, noting North Carolina’s historical tendency toward Democrats in 2008, followed by consecutive losses for the party in presidential and Senate elections.
In terms of political leanings, Silver argues that both Georgia and North Carolina are more conservative than their voter self-identification on a liberal-conservative scale suggests. He cites the absence of legalized weed for medicinal purposes and the high proportion of Black voters who identify as socially conservative despite their Democratic voting patterns.
While acknowledging the potential for shifts, Silver doesn’t anticipate dramatic swings in either state. He predicts that a one-point change in national polls would translate to a slight 0.9-point shift in both North Carolina and Georgia.
With early voting already underway in North Carolina, the 2024 election is unfolding rapidly. Silver’s analysis of these key swing states offers valuable insights into the race for the White House.
