In the electoral arena of Kerala, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 are drawing near, igniting strategic maneuvers among the prominent political parties. The Congress, the CPI(M), and the BJP each harbor distinct ambitions hinging on the electoral outcome.
For the Congress, the 2019 General Elections served as a beacon of hope, and the party aspires to replicate that success. The Congress leadership is banking on anti-incumbency sentiments against the Kerala government and hopes to garner support from minority communities. Rahul Gandhi’s candidacy in Wayanad is anticipated to bolster the party’s prospects in constituencies across northern Kerala.
The CPI(M), on the other hand, aims to fortify its presence in Parliament by increasing its number of MPs. This is crucial for maintaining its national party status. In the 2019 elections, the party secured only one seat in Kerala (Alappuzha), and it is determined to improve upon that performance. By transforming electoral contests into intense battles and leveraging its organizational machinery, the CPI(M) hopes to notch up additional victories.
The BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has embarked on a mission to make a quantum leap in its vote share in Kerala. Modi’s repeated visits to the state this year, coupled with his outreach programs to Christian denominations, have transformed the bipolar state polity into a tripolar one in several constituencies. The party is optimistic about securing at least one or two seats and is working to prevent Muslim consolidation against its candidates in key constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur.
Despite pre-poll surveys indicating a third consecutive term for the BJP-led government at the Centre, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) remain formidable forces in Kerala. Historically, the LDF and UDF have shared the 20 seats in the state, but the 2019 elections proved to be an exception. The CPI(M) is wary of anti-incumbency sentiments, which often sway the electorate in the state during Lok Sabha polls. However, the party is cautiously optimistic given its strong organizational base and meticulous planning.
The Congress, seeking to replicate its 2019 success, is facing challenges within its coalition. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a key ally, is demanding a winnable Rajya Sabha seat, which could escalate tensions if the Congress nominates Shafi Parambil from the communally sensitive constituency of Vadakara. Such a move could disrupt coalition politics and embolden the anti-Congress faction within the IUML.
All parties are closely monitoring the voter turnout, which has historically favored the UDF. A high turnout often benefits the Congress-led alliance, but this pattern is not always consistent. Various election results in the past demonstrate that turnout can vary significantly and influence the outcome.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala promise to be a captivating political battleground, with each party employing strategic maneuvers and vying for electoral supremacy. The outcome will have far-reaching implications for the state’s political landscape and the national political scenario.
