The 2024 presidential race is heating up, but the battle for control of the House of Representatives is also a major focus. With less than three months until Election Day, candidates in key congressional races across the country are sprinting to the finish line.
Both Democrats and Republicans are making their case for control of the House. Republican strategist Doug Heye expresses optimism for his party, suggesting the close presidential race in swing states might mitigate some of the typical party-line voting trends. Conversely, Democratic strategist Joel Rubin points to redistricting wins and renewed enthusiasm within the party since Vice President Kamala Harris assumed leadership last month.
Here’s a closer look at five key races that could decide the House majority:
NY-17:
Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, faces a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the New York suburbs. The district leaned towards Biden in 2020, making it a target for Democrats. Both candidates are positioning themselves as moderates, seeking to distance themselves from the more extreme positions within their respective parties. Lawler is known for his bipartisan record, while Jones has shifted his stance closer to the center, even endorsing a primary opponent of a fellow progressive.
VA-07:
With Rep. Abigail Spanberger vacating her seat to run for governor, both parties are targeting this district in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. The Democratic candidate is Eugene Vindman, brother of Alexander Vindman, whose testimony in the first impeachment of former President Trump gained national attention. On the Republican side is Derrick Anderson, an attorney and former Special Forces Green Beret. This district has historically been competitive, with Spanberger winning a close race against a Tea Party Republican in 2017.
MI-08:
Rep. Dan Kildee, a Democrat, is leaving Congress at the end of this year, leaving a competitive open seat in central Michigan. The district has trended more conservative in recent years, but Biden narrowly won there in 2020. The race pits Democratic State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet against former Trump administration appointee Paul Junge.
MD-06:
Maryland’s 6th congressional district, with Democratic Rep. David Trone leaving at the end of the year, presents a possible pickup opportunity for Republicans in a generally blue state. April Delaney, wife of former Rep. John Delaney, is running on the Democratic side against Republican former state delegate Neil Parrott. While the district leans blue, a significant number of unaffiliated voters could sway the outcome.
AK-At Large:
Alaska’s lone congressional seat will be decided using ranked-choice voting, making the race even more unpredictable. Republican Nick Begich is seen as the frontrunner, with moderate Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola facing an uphill battle to retain her seat. The state voted for Trump by a significant margin in 2020, making it a challenging environment for Peltola.These five races represent just a small sample of the many crucial contests that will determine control of the House of Representatives in 2024. With tight margins and intense competition, the outcome of these races will have major implications for the future of American politics.
