Get ready for a shift in the weather as La Niña prepares to make its return this autumn, following an El Niño-influenced summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre has confirmed a 60% chance of La Niña developing and lasting until March. This natural climate cycle, often described as the opposite of El Niño, is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
While both La Niña and El Niño can impact weather globally, their effects on Europe, particularly in regions far from the Pacific, can be less predictable. This is due to the influence of local weather patterns, making each event unique.
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organisation predicted a high chance of La Niña conditions emerging between October and February, with a weak to moderate strength event expected to weaken early in 2025.
For Europe, La Niña typically brings colder than normal temperatures to Western Europe, with a noticeable drop anticipated as we head towards November and December. The Alps are likely to experience wetter and colder conditions, potentially leading to more frequent and heavier snowfall, a welcome event for snow-deprived resorts. Other parts of Europe may see less snow, with northwest and southeast countries experiencing drier than usual conditions. However, southwest regions are expected to receive more rainfall.
France, the UK, and Scandinavia are projected to be the coldest regions from October, with temperatures potentially lower than last year. Despite this, some meteorologists believe that the overall temperatures may still be warmer than long-term averages due to the La Niña influence.
La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific. Trade winds intensify, and cold water from the ocean depths rises. This results in cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, affecting the jet stream’s position and pushing it northwards. The jet stream then sits over the ocean, utilizing its moisture to boost precipitation and influence storm paths.
From 2020 to 2023, the Earth experienced a ‘triple dip’ La Niña event, the first since 1973 to 1976. While not entirely surprising given the tendency of La Niña events to last longer and occur more frequently than El Niño events, scientists are investigating the link between climate change and these cycles.
Although the direct relationship between climate change and La Niña and El Niño is not fully understood, evidence suggests that climate change is amplifying extreme weather events globally. Rainfall patterns are becoming more variable, deviating from historical averages and expected patterns. The increase in greenhouse gases caused by the unabated burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Climate scientist Paul Roundy highlights the challenges computer models face in differentiating between normal variation in El Niño and La Niña phases and the warming influence of climate change on oceans and the atmosphere. While acknowledging the difficulty in isolating climate change’s impact on these events, Roundy suggests that the strong natural swings in these cycles could explain multiple La Niña events. He speculates that we might observe the opposite trend in the future.
As La Niña prepares to take center stage, its impact on European weather patterns will be closely monitored. Whether it brings colder temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, or a combination of both, its arrival signals another chapter in the dynamic dance between climate and weather.
