As Japan gears up for its October 27th election, a wave of uncertainty is swirling around the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Major media outlets are projecting that the LDP might lose its sole majority in the lower house, a scenario that hasn’t unfolded in 15 years. This loss of power could dramatically alter the political landscape of Japan.
The lower house, the more influential of Japan’s two parliamentary chambers, holds 465 seats. The Nikkei newspaper, in a joint poll with the Yomiuri Shimbun, reported that the LDP might fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, surveyed 165,820 respondents nationwide.
Another prediction came from the Mainichi newspaper, which forecast the LDP winning between 203 and 205 seats. This projection was based on phone surveys of voters on October 15 and 16, gathering around 190,000 responses. The Mainichi also predicted a decline in seats for the LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito, from its current 32 to a range of 24 to 29 seats.
These gloomy predictions are echoed by other media outlets. A poll by broadcaster TBS released on Wednesday suggested a loss of about 30 seats for the LDP, while Komeito might also see a slight decline. Similarly, a Kyodo poll published on Thursday hinted at challenges for the LDP in securing a majority.
However, not all news is bleak for the LDP. The Yomiuri newspaper offered a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that the coalition would still win a majority. The Yomiuri also noted that around 100 LDP candidates were in a strong position to win their seats, while 120 were in close races.
The LDP, Japan’s largest political party since 2009, has been in power for a long time and relies on the support of its long-standing partner, Komeito, to maintain its control. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took over the leadership last month after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned amid funding scandals, has expressed his ambition to secure a majority with the help of Komeito. However, the recent decline in public support for the LDP, stemming from revelations of financial impropriety involving party members, might make this goal harder than expected.
The October 27th election will be a crucial test for the LDP. If the polls are accurate, the LDP may have to relinquish its long-held grip on power, potentially leading to a new era of political dynamics in Japan. The race for the lower house seats is intense, and the outcome will have significant implications for the future direction of Japanese politics.
