The political landscape in France is undergoing a significant shift, with the right-wing coalition led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) poised to emerge as the single-largest party in the upcoming elections. This prediction is based on opinion polls published ahead of the elections, which will be held in two phases on June 30 and July 7.
The surge of the RN, often categorized as a ‘far-right’ bloc, has been a prominent trend in recent European politics. This month, right-wing parties made notable gains in European Union (EU) polls, signaling a shift in sentiment across the continent. The most significant upsets for ruling centrist and leftist parties occurred in France and Germany, with the elections viewed as a referendum on domestic politics.
In France, the polls indicate a potential defeat for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition. According to surveys by Ipsos, Odoxa, and Opinionway-Vae Solis, the RN coalition is projected to secure the highest number of votes, followed by the left-wing coalition called the New Popular Front (NPF). Macron’s centrists are predicted to come in a distant third place.
The Ipsos poll suggests the RN coalition will win 35.5% of votes in the first phase of elections on June 30. The Odoxa poll puts the RN coalition at 33%, while the Opinionway and Vae Solis poll forecasts 35%.
The reasons for this surge in support for Le Pen’s RN are complex, but voters seem to be drawn to the party’s focus on economic and financial issues. The Ipsos poll highlighted that 25% of respondents believed the RN was most capable of addressing economic concerns, compared to 22% for the NPF and 20% for Macron’s alliance.
The potential victory of either the left-wing bloc or the right-wing bloc would signify a significant change in French politics, with Macron losing control over the domestic agenda. While he would remain president until 2027, the prime minister, chosen in these elections, would be responsible for governing the country’s domestic affairs. This shift in power could dramatically alter the direction of French policy in areas like social welfare, immigration, and economic management.
The upcoming French elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. The outcome will not only determine the future of the French government but also provide further insights into the changing political landscape across Europe.
