Lebanon, still reeling from the recent conflict with Israel and the subsequent ceasefire brokered with Hezbollah, is preparing to address another pressing issue: the long-standing presidential vacancy. Speaker Nabih Berri has announced a parliamentary session scheduled for January 9th, 2024, specifically to elect a new president. This move comes after a two-year period of political paralysis, leaving the nation without a head of state since the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022.
The absence of a president has exacerbated Lebanon’s already dire economic situation. A crippling financial crisis has plunged three-quarters of the population into poverty, hindering the implementation of crucial reforms desperately needed to stabilize the country. The prolonged political deadlock has further deepened this crisis, leaving many to question whether the upcoming election will truly provide a path towards recovery.
The election itself is expected to be highly contentious. The two main political blocs – the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its opposing coalition – remain deeply divided, with neither possessing the necessary majority to secure a victory. This power struggle, influenced by regional geopolitical dynamics, has made the selection of a consensual candidate an extremely challenging task.
The involvement of Hezbollah, a key player in Lebanese politics, adds another layer of complexity. While Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, recently suggested the group would actively participate in the presidential election process, the group’s influence and alliances remain a major factor influencing the political landscape. Speaker Berri himself, a close ally of Hezbollah, has urged for a swift resolution to the presidential vacancy.
According to Karim Emile Bitar, Professor of International Relations at Beirut’s Saint Joseph University, the election hinges on finding a candidate acceptable to both major Lebanese factions and to regional powers. “In order to elect a president in Lebanon,” he explains, “you first need to find a consensual figure who is not vetoed by major Lebanese players, and who is vetted and okayed by regional powers. So far you have a tug-of-war between the Iranian-Syrian axis backing Hezbollah and, on the other hand, the alliance that is closer to the United States and Saudi Arabia.” This intricate web of regional alliances underscores the international implications of Lebanon’s presidential election.
The traditional confessional system further complicates matters. The presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, the premiership for a Sunni Muslim, and the speakership for a Shiite Muslim. This deeply rooted system, while intended to foster balance, often fuels sectarian tensions and political gridlock, particularly during moments of national crisis.
The January 9th session marks yet another attempt to break the deadlock, although the likelihood of a successful election remains uncertain. The outcome will undoubtedly have profound implications for Lebanon’s future, shaping its political trajectory and its ability to navigate the ongoing economic and geopolitical challenges.
