In a continuation of the reports by Lokniti-CSDS, the BJP appears to have held firmly onto its core bastions and successfully deflected challenges in other regions. This is the dominant trend revealed by Lokniti’s post-election survey, which was conducted through systematic random sampling of nearly 20,000 respondents from various regions.
Ahead of the actual vote count on Tuesday, Lokniti’s post-election survey affirms that the BJP has maintained a comfortable lead in the 18th parliamentary election and is poised to form the government for a third consecutive term. The Lokniti Team will provide thorough analyses of various factors contributing to this trend.
The survey indicates that both the BJP and Congress will modestly increase their vote shares compared to the previous election (37.4% and 19.5%, respectively), with the BJP polling around 40% and the Congress approximately 23%. However, it is important to note that while both parties have a margin of gain of 3% to 4%, the margin of error for these vote share calculations is ±3.08.
Despite the BJP’s edge in terms of vote share and the likelihood of increasing it by around three percentage points over the last election, the Congress refuses to concede. A similar increase of about three percent votes will ensure that the Congress remains a contender, albeit as a distant second. Thus, although the Congress may gain votes compared to its dismal performance in 2014, this gain might not be sufficient to destabilize the BJP. This reality and the spatial distribution of votes will determine the seat distribution for these parties.
A limited but significant increase in the vote shares of both parties suggests that smaller parties may have lost some ground. The BJP has made concerted efforts to expand its influence in the eastern and southern states, and these efforts are likely to pay off as the party’s vote share in these regions has increased compared to the previous election. On the other hand, the Congress’ gains are likely to be dispersed across a few states, potentially insufficient for the party to make significant gains in terms of seats. This asymmetry in performance is likely to favor the BJP and disappoint the Congress.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has allied with the Congress in Gujarat, Haryana, and Delhi, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has limited support outside of Uttar Pradesh. Since the BJP’s resurgence as a dominant force, the fate of state parties has been uncertain. However, the Congress’ compulsion to form alliances in most states and the BJP’s corresponding caution in strengthening the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have provided state parties with a temporary reprieve. Many state parties will likely play a crucial role in either the ruling or opposition coalition.
These, of course, are the trends emerging from the survey. On Tuesday, the actual count of millions of votes cast over the past seven weeks will provide a clearer picture. This will be followed by Lokniti’s analysis of how the outcome was shaped.
